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Post by The OC on Aug 20, 2023 13:39:13 GMT
Agree with all you said…. Still, I find a quality center is more vital and that the B’S will still be able to get enough scoring from the likes of Pasta, Marchy and Zacha, if the latter can be moved back to winger…. Hopeful also that Fabian can start living up to the hype sooner rather than later…. Time was past behaviour was a reliable predictor of future behaviour, but I don't think that's true any more. Nevertheless... I looked at the top scoring Cs over the last six seasons again. Point number 1, 2 of the top 10 have changed teams - Huberdeau (we can debate whether he should be included, but for now we'll take NHL.com's word for it) and Tavares. One trade, one UFA. Between 11-20, three of them were traded but before they became top producers - Zibanejad, Lindholm and JT Miller. If you do top 32 (in theory, evenly distributed as the top scoring C for each NHL team), there are a few guys who have been traded or otherwise moved multiple times - Miller, Brayden Schenn, Ryan O'Reilly, and Matt Duchene, and overall 11 of 32 have changed teams - better than 1/3. Surprisingly few of the moves are of the Pavelski nature where a guy spends almost his entire career with one team and then plays his final years on a different team - and that's not even to limit it to aging vets who still lead their teams in scoring like Pavelski has. One third. #33 is Kadri - moved twice already. But that's also 11 over 6 years. Fewer than 2 per season. There are moves to be made, but like when the lights come on in the bar at the end of the night, you might not like the choices if you either take the best available option or go home alone. Point number 2 is that if you wanted to look at one thing and say "we're tanking!" it's this list. In the top 9, 6 were first overall picks, one was a second overall and two were third overall. 26 of the top 35 are top 10 picks - more than 2/3 - and 15 of those 26 went top 3. If you're hoping to draft one, the odds are about the same in picks 4-10 as for 11 and after - at least in terms of total number of players to make the list (11 from 4-10; 9 from 11-224). In terms of LWs, there is more movement at the top starting with Panarin at 1, Gaudreau at 3, Tkachuk at 5. David Perron is basically a streamer trunk. Fiala, Teravainen, Buchnevich are all top 13 and all have moved. Most of those guys will get you 25 goals on average if not more over 82 games. RWs is even more fluid aftr the top 5**. The first significant guy is #6, Giroux, who only really moved because he was coming to the end of his career and had the chance to play it out close to home. Good for him. Wheeler is 7 and of course he was moved early. Debrincat has now been moved twice at 8. Marchessault moved thanks to the Expansion draft - he's 10. Kessel, Mark Stone, Timo Meier, Voracek (more than once), Zuccarello, Toffoli, Reilly Smith, Rakell, Dadonov, and Eberle are all in the top 24. Even if you don't count Wheeler and Giroux for the when and why they were traded, you have half of the top RW scorers changing teams. So I would say that it may be slightly easier to get a top winger, but 25-30 goal wingers are not growing on trees like they did in the 80s. **The top three RW in scoring over the last 6 seasons are separated by 2 points: Kucherov - 495, Pasta - 494, Marner - 493. Marner, though, has played 10 more games than Pastrnak, and Pastrnak has played 61 more than the Kooch. Rantanen would replace Marner in the top 3 if you did this by points/game with the other two holding serve. Hooby's not a Center so your whole point is moot. |
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Post by dannycater on Aug 20, 2023 15:29:22 GMT
Time was past behaviour was a reliable predictor of future behaviour, but I don't think that's true any more. Nevertheless... I looked at the top scoring Cs over the last six seasons again. Point number 1, 2 of the top 10 have changed teams - Huberdeau (we can debate whether he should be included, but for now we'll take NHL.com's word for it) and Tavares. One trade, one UFA. Between 11-20, three of them were traded but before they became top producers - Zibanejad, Lindholm and JT Miller. If you do top 32 (in theory, evenly distributed as the top scoring C for each NHL team), there are a few guys who have been traded or otherwise moved multiple times - Miller, Brayden Schenn, Ryan O'Reilly, and Matt Duchene, and overall 11 of 32 have changed teams - better than 1/3. Surprisingly few of the moves are of the Pavelski nature where a guy spends almost his entire career with one team and then plays his final years on a different team - and that's not even to limit it to aging vets who still lead their teams in scoring like Pavelski has. One third. #33 is Kadri - moved twice already. But that's also 11 over 6 years. Fewer than 2 per season. There are moves to be made, but like when the lights come on in the bar at the end of the night, you might not like the choices if you either take the best available option or go home alone. Point number 2 is that if you wanted to look at one thing and say "we're tanking!" it's this list. In the top 9, 6 were first overall picks, one was a second overall and two were third overall. 26 of the top 35 are top 10 picks - more than 2/3 - and 15 of those 26 went top 3. If you're hoping to draft one, the odds are about the same in picks 4-10 as for 11 and after - at least in terms of total number of players to make the list (11 from 4-10; 9 from 11-224). In terms of LWs, there is more movement at the top starting with Panarin at 1, Gaudreau at 3, Tkachuk at 5. David Perron is basically a streamer trunk. Fiala, Teravainen, Buchnevich are all top 13 and all have moved. Most of those guys will get you 25 goals on average if not more over 82 games. RWs is even more fluid aftr the top 5**. The first significant guy is #6, Giroux, who only really moved because he was coming to the end of his career and had the chance to play it out close to home. Good for him. Wheeler is 7 and of course he was moved early. Debrincat has now been moved twice at 8. Marchessault moved thanks to the Expansion draft - he's 10. Kessel, Mark Stone, Timo Meier, Voracek (more than once), Zuccarello, Toffoli, Reilly Smith, Rakell, Dadonov, and Eberle are all in the top 24. Even if you don't count Wheeler and Giroux for the when and why they were traded, you have half of the top RW scorers changing teams. So I would say that it may be slightly easier to get a top winger, but 25-30 goal wingers are not growing on trees like they did in the 80s. **The top three RW in scoring over the last 6 seasons are separated by 2 points: Kucherov - 495, Pasta - 494, Marner - 493. Marner, though, has played 10 more games than Pastrnak, and Pastrnak has played 61 more than the Kooch. Rantanen would replace Marner in the top 3 if you did this by points/game with the other two holding serve. Hooby's not a Center so your whole point is moot. The center gets the square |
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Post by mdsizzle on Aug 20, 2023 20:31:41 GMT
We should not trade Jake because:
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Post by bookboy007 on Aug 21, 2023 13:50:09 GMT
We should not trade Jake because: ...no one is currently offering enough value in a return to make it worthwhile, and whatever you think of the player, his ability to score at even strength (second on the team behind Pastrnak, and the only other Bruin to top 20 at ES) and to create his own chances off the rush and off of turnovers he forces with his speed is something the Bruins lack elsewhere in the lineup. If you're going to lose that entirely, the return had better offset it. Also because of the growth in his all-around game. Some of that will have come from playing with Bergeron and Marchand, but the eye test says it wasn't just trickle down. He has a better sense of how to use his strengths in all zones than he did in his first 4 seasons. And last...because without Bergeron, I expect that he will see more opportunities off of Marchand's playmaking. Marchand has always had a bit of tunnel vision in his game, and the only real exception to that rule was when playing with the BLiH where he had full confidence in Pastrnak. But one of the reasons that no one else has really thrived on Bergeron's RW is that Marchand is a bit of a black hole. Option one for him is to beat his man one on one and then get his shot or make a play for a tap in. Option two is find Bergeron. Depending on how much he trusts his RW, option 3-7903 is look for the RW. According to Dobber, he played RW for Bergeron and Marchand 39.5% of his TOI and had 15 points. He had 20 ES points in other line configurations, and in general, his pace of scoring didn't really change depending on who was on his line. I think that could change as the relationship dynamic goes from Marchand being extremely familiar with Patrice to Marchand being generally familiar with Jake and not at all familiar with his new C. |
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Post by bookboy007 on Aug 21, 2023 13:50:54 GMT
Time was past behaviour was a reliable predictor of future behaviour, but I don't think that's true any more. Nevertheless... I looked at the top scoring Cs over the last six seasons again. Point number 1, 2 of the top 10 have changed teams - Huberdeau (we can debate whether he should be included, but for now we'll take NHL.com's word for it) and Tavares. One trade, one UFA. Between 11-20, three of them were traded but before they became top producers - Zibanejad, Lindholm and JT Miller. If you do top 32 (in theory, evenly distributed as the top scoring C for each NHL team), there are a few guys who have been traded or otherwise moved multiple times - Miller, Brayden Schenn, Ryan O'Reilly, and Matt Duchene, and overall 11 of 32 have changed teams - better than 1/3. Surprisingly few of the moves are of the Pavelski nature where a guy spends almost his entire career with one team and then plays his final years on a different team - and that's not even to limit it to aging vets who still lead their teams in scoring like Pavelski has. One third. #33 is Kadri - moved twice already. But that's also 11 over 6 years. Fewer than 2 per season. There are moves to be made, but like when the lights come on in the bar at the end of the night, you might not like the choices if you either take the best available option or go home alone. Point number 2 is that if you wanted to look at one thing and say "we're tanking!" it's this list. In the top 9, 6 were first overall picks, one was a second overall and two were third overall. 26 of the top 35 are top 10 picks - more than 2/3 - and 15 of those 26 went top 3. If you're hoping to draft one, the odds are about the same in picks 4-10 as for 11 and after - at least in terms of total number of players to make the list (11 from 4-10; 9 from 11-224). In terms of LWs, there is more movement at the top starting with Panarin at 1, Gaudreau at 3, Tkachuk at 5. David Perron is basically a streamer trunk. Fiala, Teravainen, Buchnevich are all top 13 and all have moved. Most of those guys will get you 25 goals on average if not more over 82 games. RWs is even more fluid aftr the top 5**. The first significant guy is #6, Giroux, who only really moved because he was coming to the end of his career and had the chance to play it out close to home. Good for him. Wheeler is 7 and of course he was moved early. Debrincat has now been moved twice at 8. Marchessault moved thanks to the Expansion draft - he's 10. Kessel, Mark Stone, Timo Meier, Voracek (more than once), Zuccarello, Toffoli, Reilly Smith, Rakell, Dadonov, and Eberle are all in the top 24. Even if you don't count Wheeler and Giroux for the when and why they were traded, you have half of the top RW scorers changing teams. So I would say that it may be slightly easier to get a top winger, but 25-30 goal wingers are not growing on trees like they did in the 80s. **The top three RW in scoring over the last 6 seasons are separated by 2 points: Kucherov - 495, Pasta - 494, Marner - 493. Marner, though, has played 10 more games than Pastrnak, and Pastrnak has played 61 more than the Kooch. Rantanen would replace Marner in the top 3 if you did this by points/game with the other two holding serve. Hooby's not a Center so your whole point is moot. That's NHL.com's fault. |
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Post by dannycater on Aug 21, 2023 14:17:00 GMT
We should not trade Jake because: He does a great celly and to piss off those who think he is not more valuable now than ever. |
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Post by 50belowzero on Aug 21, 2023 16:54:24 GMT
I don't want Gryz traded under any circumstance as he provides GOAT with a reason to live. On second thought if Gryz was a must include to complete a trade for Draisaitl then OK but that's it, otherwise need fuel for GOAT's existence. Can you imagine how much he would seethe in the afterlife because people would think that the reason the Grz trade killed him was because Grz was his favourite player? "Bruins fan found dead after reading of Grzelcyk trade; friends call Grz 'his reason to live'." Yep, GOAT's headstone would be 4' 11" tall with the inscription, "Here lies GOAT, his time was too short". |
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