Mid-Season Questions - Most Surprising and Disappointing

[bookboy007]

Not only is tonight's game a matchup of the top teams from the two conferences, it's a battle between two of the most surprising teams this season.

Bruins lose 37, 46, Hall, Foligno, Clifton, Nosek and all of their rentals from last year; add aging JVR, Woodstock, a 19 yr old, a 21 yr old D, and make no effort to upgrade the top six Cs. Still in the same spot as last year - #1 in the East, #1 overall (Jets with the higher points%, though). Lines up with what I posted over the offseason - if you took away all of the goals by guys they lost the Bruins would still have had the top goal differential in the NHL last year - or maybe it was top two or three. But still near the top. That's got to be a huge surprise for many who expected the Bruins to be the most vulnerable to young up and comers looking to take their playoff spot.

Jets shed Wheeler and PLD, then shocked everyone by finding a way to keep Schneiffle and Hellabucyk, and have since proceeded to crush it. Now, part of their current ranking is that the Avs and Knights have been devastated by injury and whatever you call it is going on with Nichushkin, but take nothing away from how well the Jets are playing. We saw it a couple of weeks ago - heavy, relentless, and with talent to back it up, and with goaltending. Surprising.

I think you have to add a few other teams to the mix if you're looking to identify the MOST surprising (in a good way).

Who expected Philthy to be second in the Metro? Torts has flipped the script there and a guy like Konecny (at one point, one of the rare players to get an age exemption to playin the OHL at 15 because he was that good) is thriving. Couturier and Atkinson being healthy is huge and they're getting a lot from guys like Walker and Seeler and Zamula - way beyond any reasonable expectation. Torts can coach.

Florida was a bubble team last year, needing the Penguins to totally crap their pants just to make the dance. Then they shocked everyone by going deep. Surprising to see them carry that over into this season as #2 in the Atlantic. Reinhart is absolutely blazing hot, Barkov's having his most productive season in years, and Tkachump is only their 4th leading scorer. And they're doing it despite goaltending. Bob's solidfied his #1 status but only has a 90.8s% and Spencer Knight is in the A. I'm surprised. They're doing way better than I would have thought.

Detroit makes the list almost entirely because of the impact their two big winger acquisitions have had. Bringing in former Hawks hasn't worked this well in Detroit since they brought in Chelios. And of the gaggle of teams that the talking heads lose their noodles over as the next big thing ready to push out the status quo, the Wings are the one in a playoff position today, despite less than world-beating talent in the net.

I should add VanCity...but screw them. That's less a story of a team surprising than a team that has ceased to be a massive turd farm.

Speaking of massive turd farms...hard to say who the most disappointing team is this year.

Ottawa has the fewest points in the East after a first half rife with controversy and changes. Things have been so bad, the question of who is untouchable has come up almost daily. And the list keeps getting shorter. Buffalo is a point back of the Montreal team the Bruins just hung 9 on. Tage has missed 10 games, but he's also dropped to a 0.75 points/game player. Like the Senators, much was expected in terms of them turning a corner...but they have no goalies and that's undermining the confidence of the good skaters they have, especially on the blueline. 

But I would say Columbus is more of a disappointment. They've made win now moves for a while. Laine, Cabbage Patch, and most recently, Provorov and Severson. But it hasn't worked and they've been giving the tough love to their high pick forwards this year. Ugly. That said, I would still put them behind the Devils in this discussion. The Devils were supposed to be ready to challenge. They made the playoffs, added Luke Hughes, and had an up and coming goalie they thought. Nope. Injuries and goalies have killed them. Very disappointing. Lindy may get fired after all. Toronto has to be another one in that vein. They added Bertuzzi and Domi with their limited Cap room and ... regret it. The coach barely uses them in the situations they were hired to play. Buston's having a huge year, but it's not unusual to see him score two goals and the team loses. And when he's not scoring, his impact seems less than amazing - he only has 18 assists - one more than Zacha and three fewer than JVR. With the Bolts in decline and Boston's losses, Toronto was poised to fill the void at the top...nope.

Most of this focusses on the East, but that's more a reflection of the East than me not watching as many western games. Look at the Western standings and I don't see as many anomalies. The one disappointment is probably the Krakkers. 4 points back of the WC and they look like they are struggling not to fall into the group of teams that's just out - Anaheim, SJ, and Chicago. So give them the Western runner up for this award.

I would say the biggest disappointment for me is the Canes. They've looked awful at times this year, and while they've managed to stay in the top 3 in the Metro, they haven't looked like a top contender. They were the eastern team named most often in preseason predictions, and I think they've been a massive trombone-inducing disappointment.

[sandogbrewin]

I'm a bit surprised by Detroit. But I shouldn't be it's Stevie Y.

[jmwalters]

WPG surprised me the most off this list. They seemed to be on the fast track to implosion with few options. Now they are legit cup contenders.

Kudos

[50belowzero]

Philly being in a top 3 spot in the Metro more than halfway through the season is surprising to me. The Jets leading the Central and being 3rd overall is also surprising and i would say the Nucks 1st OA is crazy, maybe they're the most surprising.

[dannycater]

I'm never surprised, it's the NHL...all the teams can beat any other on any given night, which is why 8 regulation losses for this B's team is flat out incredible.

[bookboy007]

Jan 22, 2024 19:40:55 GMT 50belowzero said:

Philly being in a top 3 spot in the Metro more than halfway through the season is surprising to me. The Jets leading the Central and being 3rd overall is also surprising and i would say the Nucks 1st OA is crazy, maybe they're the most surprising.

I think I'm less surprised by them because they were so much like the 2014-15 Bruins - the issue was all their good players weren't up to snuff all year last year (despite 102 points for Pettersson) and they just couldn't get a save. Last year, Demko was 3.16 and 90.1%; this year he's 2.47 and 91.9%. Goaltending changes the results pretty extravagantly.

[Fletcher]

I only say Detroit, because I've been betting on Winnipeg for a few seasons now, and think that they've been an underachiever. That's a really good roster, IMO. I think they are where they should be, this year.

[The OC]

I'm surprised by the Jets. I expected a sell off. They kept key talent, and are playing really great hockey.

[bookboy007]

In that vein - I posted a while back that 32 Turds brought up that goalies are like NFL Qbs in that there are only about 7-8 legit franchise goalies (among other things to support the comparison, but rarity and opportunity was the key point).

I never got around to thinking who they are right now, but at a guess I'd say:

Vagisil - he's eaten a lot of minutes and doesn't look like the same goalie now than he was before injuries and three straight long post-season runs. But I think you have to put him on the list until he goes full Matt Murray.

Hellabucyk - multiple time Vezina finalist; consistent results in the regular season, but questions about his playoff record. In 6 playoff seasons, he was really good first time through, and really good in 2020-21, but was less than average last both last year and in the 4 game sweep loss to the Canadiens.

...now who do you add? You could make a case for the following, but you'd get push back I'm sure.

Adin Hill - He has a ring. He has great stats when he's healthy this year. Has he become a franchise goalie, but it's too new for us to appreciate it?

Jacob Markstrom - Wildly inconsistent results for the Calgary netminder. Second in Vez voting two years ago, sub-90% s% last year. Same pattern the previous two years where he was 4th in Vez voting and then just 90.4s% the following year. And it's hard to call a guy with only two seasons of playoff experience a franchise goalie even if he played 12 and 14 games in those two years (so he's .500 over 4 series).

Sorkin - Ilya's numbers are very solid for his career if a little soft this year. But if you question Markstrom for lack of playoff experience, you won't like Ilya's even shorter resume.

Shesterkin - Excellent playoff numbers, but again, a small sample, and he's having a terrible year with numbers significantly below his career averages.

Sauros - Impressive playoff numbers but never won a round as a starter; great regular season numbers but he's currently having an off yaer.

Oettinger - He has, at times, looked like he was going to be a wall, but he's fallen hard after a great start this year, and it feels like that's a pattern with him. He had one playoff where he had unbelievable numbers but lost in 7 games, then less impressive numbers last year where they won two rounds but couldn't beat Vegans.

Demko - See Oettinger. Sort of. He's played 4 playoff games, 3 starts, and has a 0.64 GAA and a 98.5 s%. Yikes. But they lost. His regular season numbers have just been OK since - middle of the road - and that's part of why the Canucks haven't been back to the dance.

Who does that leave, really?

Jarry - wouldn't get a sniff if he wasn't on Sid's team.
Bob - 2 Vezinas but as many reasons to question him as support him. Lost the starting role to start the playoffs last year to a goalie the Panthers let walk.
Gibson - we all know he has talent, but who knows what he could do if he wasn't playing behind a terrible team?
Binnington - LOL
Quick - He's been impossible to write off for two years, but he's not that guy any more.
Kuemper - Has a ring. Had good numbers in his one year in Colorado. But has only combined good numbers with a starter's work load twice despite good career numbers overall.

And of course:

Linus and Swayman. Both have put up amazing numbers over the last two plus years, but as we've debated endlessly, they are a combined 0-2 in the playoffs in terms of series wins. You have to think one or the other is due to get hot at the right moment, right?

[barleytinking]

I'd be surprised if the Bruins and Knuckleheads revisited the 2011 Finals. Now that would be awesome.

[thanx4memORRies]

Most surprising are the Jets and disappointing has to be the Sens….

[Fletcher]

Jan 22, 2024 23:51:08 GMT thanx4memORRies said:

Most surprising are the Jets and disappointing has to be the Sens….

Book can comment on this as a relative local, but it just has to be agonizing being a die-hard Senators fan these days. They've been waiting to turn the corner (the first corner) for so long now.

[sandogbrewin]

Agree on the Canes as well. Thought they had the talent to stay at the top of the eastern conference standings.

[kelvana33]

Biggest surprises to me are, and I saw what you said, but who saw Vancouver having the best record half way through January? Bruins, they lost Bergeron, Krejci, Hall, Bertuzzi, Hathaway, Foligno, Nosek, Orlov, Clifton. That's 4 top 6 forwards, 3 of your 4 centers and 2 of your 6 d-men. Crazy that they have the best record in the Eastern Conference right now.

Biggest dissapointment is Buffalo, hands down.

[dannycater]

Jan 23, 2024 18:06:35 GMT kelvana33 said:

Biggest surprises to me are, and I saw what you said, but who saw Vancouver having the best record half way through January? Bruins, they lost Bergeron, Krejci, Hall, Bertuzzi, Hathaway, Foligno, Nosek, Orlov, Clifton. That's 4 top 6 forwards, 3 of your 4 centers and 1 of your 6 d-men. Crazy that they have the best record in the Eastern Conference right now.

Biggest dissapointment is Buffalo, hands down.

great post.

[bookboy007]

Jan 23, 2024 16:57:50 GMT Fletcher said:

Jan 22, 2024 23:51:08 GMT thanx4memORRies said:

Most surprising are the Jets and disappointing has to be the Sens….

Book can comment on this as a relative local, but it just has to be agonizing being a die-hard Senators fan these days. They've been waiting to turn the corner (the first corner) for so long now.

The post-game talk radio is hilarious because of the assumptions sports media and franchises sell. You may remember that, after their last blush of playoff success with Karlsson and Craig Anderson standing on his head - and before the blowup with Hoffman - they thought the window was open. Hoffman was a surprise win 5th round pick who turned into a 50-60 point guy...with a few warts. Stone was 24 and another surprise win. A 6th rounder who was Selke level 2 way and another 50+ point guy. They had Turris, Brassard, Pageau and Dzingel at C which isn't murderers row, but like Zacha-Coyle-Pooter, they all had their strengths and the weaknesses seemed to be covered. And the expectation was that they would continue to play at that level or better. They had Bobby Ryan, already starting to decline, and on D they had a mix of solid D first guys with some grit like Methot, Borowiecki, Ceci and a still valuable Phaneuf. So they went all in the next year with the Duchene acquisition only for a bunch of guys to regress, the team to struggle, and the pivotal players who were coming up to UFA declaring they weren't going to re-sign. 

So they chose to tank. They got rid of just about everyone, and made it known that they were going to build around Chabot and Tkachuk...and Colin White, and that players who weren't aligned with that "window" didn't fit. They let Duclair walk when he was only looking for $2.5M after a 40 point season in 66  games. The rationale was that they were going to save money while they gutted out some tough years, but they promised that once they re-aligned things, they'd be spending to the Cap. Then Norris arrived and they drafted Stutzle and Sanderson, and Pinto was growing into a player. They moved Nick Paul for the cheaper Mathieu Joseph and that seemed to work. So everyone in the Ottawa Valley started talking about how they'd done all the right things and now prosperity would reign. They made "win now" moves like the trade to get DeBrincat, and another more recently to get Chychrun. All the bingo boxes on how to do a rebuild were dabbed, so let the expectation begin.

And like Edmonton, Colorado (and before then, Quebec), Buffalo and every team outside of Pittsburgh before them who tried to strip it to the studs and then quickly build a winner, they found out the road is a lot harder to travel. Their highly touted return for Stone - Brannstrom - has failed to deliver much. Norris has a bum shoulder - tough for a shooter - that isn't going to get better because shoulders are like knees that way. You fix them, but they're never the same and they're easier to re-injure. Pinto had a major injury before he missed half a year to gambling. Chabot has been injured over and over because of the wear and tear he suffered when they had no one to share the load. Tkachuk is a potential 50 goal guy who has to fight because no one else on the team will. In the top 43 players in terms of major penalties incurred, only Tom Wilson and T Freddy also have more than 10 goals. So they've struggled to have their best on the ice at the same time for any amount of time. Their win now moves have been brutal - DeBrincat was terrible here, Chychrun is sort of Phaneuf like in his zone coverage, and Dadonov ended up costing them a first round pick because they screwed up. They've been a bad drama from the end of the old ownership to the way they were forced to fire Dorion and DJ Smith when they really wanted to take their time and let it ride this year. And what's worse, like Buffalo, all those key guys under 25 are making $8M for the next half decade. They have zero motivation to change the way they play.

I cringe at the fact that, for the first time in something like 18 months, they have all of their top C healthy. Stutzle-Norris-Pinto-Grieg is a pretty talented group, and it would be admirable if Stutzle wasn't emotionally fragile and Norris physically so. But they're there now - just in time to face the Bruins. Chabot's also healthy for the first time this year. So it's possible that they get up for the Bruins and give them a much more difficult game than they would have up to the last week or so. But they still have no goalie, and even Jacques Martin can't make them magically defensively responsible, so it's entirely possible they go up 3-0 on the Bruins in the first and lose 9-4.

[bookboy007]

Jan 23, 2024 18:06:35 GMT kelvana33 said:

Biggest surprises to me are, and I saw what you said, but who saw Vancouver having the best record half way through January? Bruins, they lost Bergeron, Krejci, Hall, Bertuzzi, Hathaway, Foligno, Nosek, Orlov, Clifton. That's 4 top 6 forwards, 3 of your 4 centers and 2 of your 6 d-men. Crazy that they have the best record in the Eastern Conference right now.

Biggest dissapointment is Buffalo, hands down.

Yeah, but screw 'em.

[MrHulot]

Jan 22, 2024 22:21:06 GMT bookboy007 said:

In that vein - I posted a while back that 32 Turds brought up that goalies are like NFL Qbs in that there are only about 7-8 legit franchise goalies (among other things to support the comparison, but rarity and opportunity was the key point).

I never got around to thinking who they are right now, but at a guess I'd say:

Vagisil - he's eaten a lot of minutes and doesn't look like the same goalie now than he was before injuries and three straight long post-season runs. But I think you have to put him on the list until he goes full Matt Murray.

Hellabucyk - multiple time Vezina finalist; consistent results in the regular season, but questions about his playoff record. In 6 playoff seasons, he was really good first time through, and really good in 2020-21, but was less than average last both last year and in the 4 game sweep loss to the Canadiens.

...now who do you add? You could make a case for the following, but you'd get push back I'm sure.

Adin Hill - He has a ring. He has great stats when he's healthy this year. Has he become a franchise goalie, but it's too new for us to appreciate it?

Jacob Markstrom - Wildly inconsistent results for the Calgary netminder. Second in Vez voting two years ago, sub-90% s% last year. Same pattern the previous two years where he was 4th in Vez voting and then just 90.4s% the following year. And it's hard to call a guy with only two seasons of playoff experience a franchise goalie even if he played 12 and 14 games in those two years (so he's .500 over 4 series).

Sorkin - Ilya's numbers are very solid for his career if a little soft this year. But if you question Markstrom for lack of playoff experience, you won't like Ilya's even shorter resume.

Shesterkin - Excellent playoff numbers, but again, a small sample, and he's having a terrible year with numbers significantly below his career averages.

Sauros - Impressive playoff numbers but never won a round as a starter; great regular season numbers but he's currently having an off yaer.

Oettinger - He has, at times, looked like he was going to be a wall, but he's fallen hard after a great start this year, and it feels like that's a pattern with him. He had one playoff where he had unbelievable numbers but lost in 7 games, then less impressive numbers last year where they won two rounds but couldn't beat Vegans.

Demko - See Oettinger. Sort of. He's played 4 playoff games, 3 starts, and has a 0.64 GAA and a 98.5 s%. Yikes. But they lost. His regular season numbers have just been OK since - middle of the road - and that's part of why the Canucks haven't been back to the dance.

Who does that leave, really?

Jarry - wouldn't get a sniff if he wasn't on Sid's team.
Bob - 2 Vezinas but as many reasons to question him as support him. Lost the starting role to start the playoffs last year to a goalie the Panthers let walk.
Gibson - we all know he has talent, but who knows what he could do if he wasn't playing behind a terrible team?
Binnington - LOL
Quick - He's been impossible to write off for two years, but he's not that guy any more.
Kuemper - Has a ring. Had good numbers in his one year in Colorado. But has only combined good numbers with a starter's work load twice despite good career numbers overall.

And of course:

Linus and Swayman. Both have put up amazing numbers over the last two plus years, but as we've debated endlessly, they are a combined 0-2 in the playoffs in terms of series wins. You have to think one or the other is due to get hot at the right moment, right?

Vaselinskiy - I absolutely don't like him but yes, he still belongs on this list even though the air is getting thinner.
Hellebarde - yes.
Hill - for me the jury's still out.
Markstrom - are you kidding me? I would not want him on my team, way too inconsistent.
Sorokin - no, definitely not. My opinion.
Shesterkin - one more "off"-season and I'll declare him a charlatan. I think the league has figured him out.
Saros - close but no cigar.
Oettinger - has the tools, but IMHO he's not quite there yet.
Demko - has the tools, but is inconsistent.

Jarry - again, are you kidding me?
Bob - makes too much money and doesn't deliver.
Gibson - plays for the wrong team.
Binnington - can play at NHL level for a few weeks before reverting back to what he really is, a quite ordinary minor league goalie with huge issues. Wouldn't want him anywhere near my team.
Quick - currently the man in the Rangers net. At least this season he's making the former Vezina guy he was supposed to back up look like a backup himself.
Kuemper - Antti Niemi 2.0.

I think both Linus & JS have all the tools to shine. JS was superb last night. I'm still not sure if Ullmark is the right guy to carry you through four rounds of playoffs though. If he pulls another "I'm not telling the coach I'm not 100%" I want him gone, period.

[chappy28]

Jan 22, 2024 22:21:06 GMT bookboy007 said:

In that vein - I posted a while back that 32 Turds brought up that goalies are like NFL Qbs in that there are only about 7-8 legit franchise goalies (among other things to support the comparison, but rarity and opportunity was the key point).

I never got around to thinking who they are right now, but at a guess I'd say:

Vagisil - he's eaten a lot of minutes and doesn't look like the same goalie now than he was before injuries and three straight long post-season runs. But I think you have to put him on the list until he goes full Matt Murray.

Hellabucyk - multiple time Vezina finalist; consistent results in the regular season, but questions about his playoff record. In 6 playoff seasons, he was really good first time through, and really good in 2020-21, but was less than average last both last year and in the 4 game sweep loss to the Canadiens.

...now who do you add? You could make a case for the following, but you'd get push back I'm sure.

Adin Hill - He has a ring. He has great stats when he's healthy this year. Has he become a franchise goalie, but it's too new for us to appreciate it?

Jacob Markstrom - Wildly inconsistent results for the Calgary netminder. Second in Vez voting two years ago, sub-90% s% last year. Same pattern the previous two years where he was 4th in Vez voting and then just 90.4s% the following year. And it's hard to call a guy with only two seasons of playoff experience a franchise goalie even if he played 12 and 14 games in those two years (so he's .500 over 4 series).

Sorkin - Ilya's numbers are very solid for his career if a little soft this year. But if you question Markstrom for lack of playoff experience, you won't like Ilya's even shorter resume.

Shesterkin - Excellent playoff numbers, but again, a small sample, and he's having a terrible year with numbers significantly below his career averages.

Sauros - Impressive playoff numbers but never won a round as a starter; great regular season numbers but he's currently having an off yaer.

Oettinger - He has, at times, looked like he was going to be a wall, but he's fallen hard after a great start this year, and it feels like that's a pattern with him. He had one playoff where he had unbelievable numbers but lost in 7 games, then less impressive numbers last year where they won two rounds but couldn't beat Vegans.

Demko - See Oettinger. Sort of. He's played 4 playoff games, 3 starts, and has a 0.64 GAA and a 98.5 s%. Yikes. But they lost. His regular season numbers have just been OK since - middle of the road - and that's part of why the Canucks haven't been back to the dance.

Who does that leave, really?

Jarry - wouldn't get a sniff if he wasn't on Sid's team.
Bob - 2 Vezinas but as many reasons to question him as support him. Lost the starting role to start the playoffs last year to a goalie the Panthers let walk.
Gibson - we all know he has talent, but who knows what he could do if he wasn't playing behind a terrible team?
Binnington - LOL
Quick - He's been impossible to write off for two years, but he's not that guy any more.
Kuemper - Has a ring. Had good numbers in his one year in Colorado. But has only combined good numbers with a starter's work load twice despite good career numbers overall.

And of course:

Linus and Swayman. Both have put up amazing numbers over the last two plus years, but as we've debated endlessly, they are a combined 0-2 in the playoffs in terms of series wins. You have to think one or the other is due to get hot at the right moment, right?

But the big difference between great goalies and great QB's is that while in football, the great QB's suck up the majority of the playoff wins, in hockey it's more about getting hot at the right time than it is about being the best overall goalie.  Franchise goalies give you a chance to win.  Franchise quarterbacks can go out and win you the game. 

Not hard to think of some cup winning goalies that are the equivalent of Bailey Zappe leading the Pats to the promised land. 

[bookboy007]

Jan 23, 2024 21:03:55 GMT MrHulot said:

Jan 22, 2024 22:21:06 GMT bookboy007 said:

In that vein - I posted a while back that 32 Turds brought up that goalies are like NFL Qbs in that there are only about 7-8 legit franchise goalies (among other things to support the comparison, but rarity and opportunity was the key point).

I never got around to thinking who they are right now, but at a guess I'd say:

Vagisil - he's eaten a lot of minutes and doesn't look like the same goalie now than he was before injuries and three straight long post-season runs. But I think you have to put him on the list until he goes full Matt Murray.

Hellabucyk - multiple time Vezina finalist; consistent results in the regular season, but questions about his playoff record. In 6 playoff seasons, he was really good first time through, and really good in 2020-21, but was less than average last both last year and in the 4 game sweep loss to the Canadiens.

...now who do you add? You could make a case for the following, but you'd get push back I'm sure.

Adin Hill - He has a ring. He has great stats when he's healthy this year. Has he become a franchise goalie, but it's too new for us to appreciate it?

Jacob Markstrom - Wildly inconsistent results for the Calgary netminder. Second in Vez voting two years ago, sub-90% s% last year. Same pattern the previous two years where he was 4th in Vez voting and then just 90.4s% the following year. And it's hard to call a guy with only two seasons of playoff experience a franchise goalie even if he played 12 and 14 games in those two years (so he's .500 over 4 series).

Sorkin - Ilya's numbers are very solid for his career if a little soft this year. But if you question Markstrom for lack of playoff experience, you won't like Ilya's even shorter resume.

Shesterkin - Excellent playoff numbers, but again, a small sample, and he's having a terrible year with numbers significantly below his career averages.

Sauros - Impressive playoff numbers but never won a round as a starter; great regular season numbers but he's currently having an off yaer.

Oettinger - He has, at times, looked like he was going to be a wall, but he's fallen hard after a great start this year, and it feels like that's a pattern with him. He had one playoff where he had unbelievable numbers but lost in 7 games, then less impressive numbers last year where they won two rounds but couldn't beat Vegans.

Demko - See Oettinger. Sort of. He's played 4 playoff games, 3 starts, and has a 0.64 GAA and a 98.5 s%. Yikes. But they lost. His regular season numbers have just been OK since - middle of the road - and that's part of why the Canucks haven't been back to the dance.

Who does that leave, really?

Jarry - wouldn't get a sniff if he wasn't on Sid's team.
Bob - 2 Vezinas but as many reasons to question him as support him. Lost the starting role to start the playoffs last year to a goalie the Panthers let walk.
Gibson - we all know he has talent, but who knows what he could do if he wasn't playing behind a terrible team?
Binnington - LOL
Quick - He's been impossible to write off for two years, but he's not that guy any more.
Kuemper - Has a ring. Had good numbers in his one year in Colorado. But has only combined good numbers with a starter's work load twice despite good career numbers overall.

And of course:

Linus and Swayman. Both have put up amazing numbers over the last two plus years, but as we've debated endlessly, they are a combined 0-2 in the playoffs in terms of series wins. You have to think one or the other is due to get hot at the right moment, right?

Vaselinskiy - I absolutely don't like him but yes, he still belongs on this list even though the air is getting thinner.
Hellebarde - yes.
Hill - for me the jury's still out.
Markstrom - are you kidding me? I would not want him on my team, way too inconsistent.
Sorokin - no, definitely not. My opinion.
Shesterkin - one more "off"-season and I'll declare him a charlatan. I think the league has figured him out.
Saros - close but no cigar.
Oettinger - has the tools, but IMHO he's not quite there yet.
Demko - has the tools, but is inconsistent.

Jarry - again, are you kidding me?
Bob - makes too much money and doesn't deliver.
Gibson - plays for the wrong team.
Binnington - can play at NHL level for a few weeks before reverting back to what he really is, a quite ordinary minor league goalie with huge issues. Wouldn't want him anywhere near my team.
Quick - currently the man in the Rangers net. At least this season he's making the former Vezina guy he was supposed to back up look like a backup himself.
Kuemper - Antti Niemi 2.0.

I think both Linus & JS have all the tools to shine. JS was superb last night. I'm still not sure if Ullmark is the right guy to carry you through four rounds of playoffs though. If he pulls another "I'm not telling the coach I'm not 100%" I want him gone, period.

So basically, you're narrowing the field of true franchise goalies to about 4? The guys I put on the list got mentioned because they got Vez votes the last two years and have top end stats over the last few regular seasons and or playoffs. So you have Vagisil, Hell, and maybe Gibson if he gets traded? And the Bruin goalies. If that's true, the Bruins goalies are an absolute hammer.

[bookboy007]

Jan 24, 2024 0:56:31 GMT chappy28 said:

Jan 22, 2024 22:21:06 GMT bookboy007 said:

In that vein - I posted a while back that 32 Turds brought up that goalies are like NFL Qbs in that there are only about 7-8 legit franchise goalies (among other things to support the comparison, but rarity and opportunity was the key point).

I never got around to thinking who they are right now, but at a guess I'd say:

Vagisil - he's eaten a lot of minutes and doesn't look like the same goalie now than he was before injuries and three straight long post-season runs. But I think you have to put him on the list until he goes full Matt Murray.

Hellabucyk - multiple time Vezina finalist; consistent results in the regular season, but questions about his playoff record. In 6 playoff seasons, he was really good first time through, and really good in 2020-21, but was less than average last both last year and in the 4 game sweep loss to the Canadiens.

...now who do you add? You could make a case for the following, but you'd get push back I'm sure.

Adin Hill - He has a ring. He has great stats when he's healthy this year. Has he become a franchise goalie, but it's too new for us to appreciate it?

Jacob Markstrom - Wildly inconsistent results for the Calgary netminder. Second in Vez voting two years ago, sub-90% s% last year. Same pattern the previous two years where he was 4th in Vez voting and then just 90.4s% the following year. And it's hard to call a guy with only two seasons of playoff experience a franchise goalie even if he played 12 and 14 games in those two years (so he's .500 over 4 series).

Sorkin - Ilya's numbers are very solid for his career if a little soft this year. But if you question Markstrom for lack of playoff experience, you won't like Ilya's even shorter resume.

Shesterkin - Excellent playoff numbers, but again, a small sample, and he's having a terrible year with numbers significantly below his career averages.

Sauros - Impressive playoff numbers but never won a round as a starter; great regular season numbers but he's currently having an off yaer.

Oettinger - He has, at times, looked like he was going to be a wall, but he's fallen hard after a great start this year, and it feels like that's a pattern with him. He had one playoff where he had unbelievable numbers but lost in 7 games, then less impressive numbers last year where they won two rounds but couldn't beat Vegans.

Demko - See Oettinger. Sort of. He's played 4 playoff games, 3 starts, and has a 0.64 GAA and a 98.5 s%. Yikes. But they lost. His regular season numbers have just been OK since - middle of the road - and that's part of why the Canucks haven't been back to the dance.

Who does that leave, really?

Jarry - wouldn't get a sniff if he wasn't on Sid's team.
Bob - 2 Vezinas but as many reasons to question him as support him. Lost the starting role to start the playoffs last year to a goalie the Panthers let walk.
Gibson - we all know he has talent, but who knows what he could do if he wasn't playing behind a terrible team?
Binnington - LOL
Quick - He's been impossible to write off for two years, but he's not that guy any more.
Kuemper - Has a ring. Had good numbers in his one year in Colorado. But has only combined good numbers with a starter's work load twice despite good career numbers overall.

And of course:

Linus and Swayman. Both have put up amazing numbers over the last two plus years, but as we've debated endlessly, they are a combined 0-2 in the playoffs in terms of series wins. You have to think one or the other is due to get hot at the right moment, right?

But the big difference between great goalies and great QB's is that while in football, the great QB's suck up the majority of the playoff wins, in hockey it's more about getting hot at the right time than it is about being the best overall goalie.  Franchise goalies give you a chance to win.  Franchise quarterbacks can go out and win you the game. 

Not hard to think of some cup winning goalies that are the equivalent of Bailey Zappe leading the Pats to the promised land. 

I think the "guy gets hot" thing is overplayed, really. I think you get a Trent Dilfer winning the Super Bowl or a Nick Foles about as often as an Antti Niemi. And I have seen franchise goalies go out and win the Cup. About 1/4 of the Conn Smythe winners since 1983 have been goalies, and more of the winners were regular season stars than guys who got hot. Roy, Billy Smith, Hextall, Vernon (finished 2, 4, 4 for the Vez in different years), Giguere (4 seasons where he was top 10 for the Vez) and of course Timmy. Roy absolutely carried the Shabs to the Cup in 1986 and 1993. Hex won his in a losing effort against one of the greatest teams of all time. 

I think it's probably fair to say, though, that the goalie has less control over whether he's going to be the story or not. A great QB touches the ball on every offensive play from scrimmage, so he has all the opportunity to try to force the game to bend to his will. Goaltending is more passive in that you can't make a series of acrobatic saves if the team you're playing against doesn't give you the chance. You might give up two goals and never see either of them and lose 2-1. Nothing you can do at that point to somehow change your fate except hope your offense bails you out and you keep the goals against to just those two.

[Fletcher]

Jan 23, 2024 19:02:06 GMT bookboy007 said:

Jan 23, 2024 16:57:50 GMT Fletcher said:

Book can comment on this as a relative local, but it just has to be agonizing being a die-hard Senators fan these days. They've been waiting to turn the corner (the first corner) for so long now.

The post-game talk radio is hilarious because of the assumptions sports media and franchises sell. You may remember that, after their last blush of playoff success with Karlsson and Craig Anderson standing on his head - and before the blowup with Hoffman - they thought the window was open. Hoffman was a surprise win 5th round pick who turned into a 50-60 point guy...with a few warts. Stone was 24 and another surprise win. A 6th rounder who was Selke level 2 way and another 50+ point guy. They had Turris, Brassard, Pageau and Dzingel at C which isn't murderers row, but like Zacha-Coyle-Pooter, they all had their strengths and the weaknesses seemed to be covered. And the expectation was that they would continue to play at that level or better. They had Bobby Ryan, already starting to decline, and on D they had a mix of solid D first guys with some grit like Methot, Borowiecki, Ceci and a still valuable Phaneuf. So they went all in the next year with the Duchene acquisition only for a bunch of guys to regress, the team to struggle, and the pivotal players who were coming up to UFA declaring they weren't going to re-sign. 

So they chose to tank. They got rid of just about everyone, and made it known that they were going to build around Chabot and Tkachuk...and Colin White, and that players who weren't aligned with that "window" didn't fit. They let Duclair walk when he was only looking for $2.5M after a 40 point season in 66  games. The rationale was that they were going to save money while they gutted out some tough years, but they promised that once they re-aligned things, they'd be spending to the Cap. Then Norris arrived and they drafted Stutzle and Sanderson, and Pinto was growing into a player. They moved Nick Paul for the cheaper Mathieu Joseph and that seemed to work. So everyone in the Ottawa Valley started talking about how they'd done all the right things and now prosperity would reign. They made "win now" moves like the trade to get DeBrincat, and another more recently to get Chychrun. All the bingo boxes on how to do a rebuild were dabbed, so let the expectation begin.

And like Edmonton, Colorado (and before then, Quebec), Buffalo and every team outside of Pittsburgh before them who tried to strip it to the studs and then quickly build a winner, they found out the road is a lot harder to travel. Their highly touted return for Stone - Brannstrom - has failed to deliver much. Norris has a bum shoulder - tough for a shooter - that isn't going to get better because shoulders are like knees that way. You fix them, but they're never the same and they're easier to re-injure. Pinto had a major injury before he missed half a year to gambling. Chabot has been injured over and over because of the wear and tear he suffered when they had no one to share the load. Tkachuk is a potential 50 goal guy who has to fight because no one else on the team will. In the top 43 players in terms of major penalties incurred, only Tom Wilson and T Freddy also have more than 10 goals. So they've struggled to have their best on the ice at the same time for any amount of time. Their win now moves have been brutal - DeBrincat was terrible here, Chychrun is sort of Phaneuf like in his zone coverage, and Dadonov ended up costing them a first round pick because they screwed up. They've been a bad drama from the end of the old ownership to the way they were forced to fire Dorion and DJ Smith when they really wanted to take their time and let it ride this year. And what's worse, like Buffalo, all those key guys under 25 are making $8M for the next half decade. They have zero motivation to change the way they play.

I cringe at the fact that, for the first time in something like 18 months, they have all of their top C healthy. Stutzle-Norris-Pinto-Grieg is a pretty talented group, and it would be admirable if Stutzle wasn't emotionally fragile and Norris physically so. But they're there now - just in time to face the Bruins. Chabot's also healthy for the first time this year. So it's possible that they get up for the Bruins and give them a much more difficult game than they would have up to the last week or so. But they still have no goalie, and even Jacques Martin can't make them magically defensively responsible, so it's entirely possible they go up 3-0 on the Bruins in the first and lose 9-4.

That's some interesting background, some of which I did not remember. They've made such odd choices in their FA priorities, some of whom you could bet reliably on failing from the beginning (eg. Duchene).

I really liked what little I've seen of Norris. I thought he was gonna take off, and was not really aware of the impacts of shoulder injuries. Is there a perception that Tkachuk is a good leader, or is he part of the lack of chemistry issues?

[MrHulot]

Jan 24, 2024 3:40:50 GMT bookboy007 said:

Jan 23, 2024 21:03:55 GMT MrHulot said:

Vaselinskiy - I absolutely don't like him but yes, he still belongs on this list even though the air is getting thinner.
Hellebarde - yes.
Hill - for me the jury's still out.
Markstrom - are you kidding me? I would not want him on my team, way too inconsistent.
Sorokin - no, definitely not. My opinion.
Shesterkin - one more "off"-season and I'll declare him a charlatan. I think the league has figured him out.
Saros - close but no cigar.
Oettinger - has the tools, but IMHO he's not quite there yet.
Demko - has the tools, but is inconsistent.

Jarry - again, are you kidding me?
Bob - makes too much money and doesn't deliver.
Gibson - plays for the wrong team.
Binnington - can play at NHL level for a few weeks before reverting back to what he really is, a quite ordinary minor league goalie with huge issues. Wouldn't want him anywhere near my team.
Quick - currently the man in the Rangers net. At least this season he's making the former Vezina guy he was supposed to back up look like a backup himself.
Kuemper - Antti Niemi 2.0.

I think both Linus & JS have all the tools to shine. JS was superb last night. I'm still not sure if Ullmark is the right guy to carry you through four rounds of playoffs though. If he pulls another "I'm not telling the coach I'm not 100%" I want him gone, period.

So basically, you're narrowing the field of true franchise goalies to about 4? The guys I put on the list got mentioned because they got Vez votes the last two years and have top end stats over the last few regular seasons and or playoffs. So you have Vagisil, Hell, and maybe Gibson if he gets traded? And the Bruin goalies. If that's true, the Bruins goalies are an absolute hammer.

Don't forget Jonny Quick.
Was Tuukka a franchise goalie?

I think it all depends on what's your definition of "true franchise goalie".
Was Andy Moog a franchise goalie? He won three Cups with the Oil, and no, IMHO he wasn't just Grant Fuhr's caddie. For the first Oil cup Moog won the series clincher.
And with a better team in front of him, he could have won a cup with Reggie Lemelin as his caddie in Boston.
IMHO that's on Monty Burns & Harry Sinden, with their nickel & dime-approach. Did hurt Ray Bourque too.

According to the stats last season, and partially this season, the Bruins goalies are indeed an absolute hammer.

[bookboy007]

Jan 24, 2024 5:16:52 GMT Fletcher said:

Jan 23, 2024 19:02:06 GMT bookboy007 said:

The post-game talk radio is hilarious because of the assumptions sports media and franchises sell. You may remember that, after their last blush of playoff success with Karlsson and Craig Anderson standing on his head - and before the blowup with Hoffman - they thought the window was open. Hoffman was a surprise win 5th round pick who turned into a 50-60 point guy...with a few warts. Stone was 24 and another surprise win. A 6th rounder who was Selke level 2 way and another 50+ point guy. They had Turris, Brassard, Pageau and Dzingel at C which isn't murderers row, but like Zacha-Coyle-Pooter, they all had their strengths and the weaknesses seemed to be covered. And the expectation was that they would continue to play at that level or better. They had Bobby Ryan, already starting to decline, and on D they had a mix of solid D first guys with some grit like Methot, Borowiecki, Ceci and a still valuable Phaneuf. So they went all in the next year with the Duchene acquisition only for a bunch of guys to regress, the team to struggle, and the pivotal players who were coming up to UFA declaring they weren't going to re-sign. 

So they chose to tank. They got rid of just about everyone, and made it known that they were going to build around Chabot and Tkachuk...and Colin White, and that players who weren't aligned with that "window" didn't fit. They let Duclair walk when he was only looking for $2.5M after a 40 point season in 66  games. The rationale was that they were going to save money while they gutted out some tough years, but they promised that once they re-aligned things, they'd be spending to the Cap. Then Norris arrived and they drafted Stutzle and Sanderson, and Pinto was growing into a player. They moved Nick Paul for the cheaper Mathieu Joseph and that seemed to work. So everyone in the Ottawa Valley started talking about how they'd done all the right things and now prosperity would reign. They made "win now" moves like the trade to get DeBrincat, and another more recently to get Chychrun. All the bingo boxes on how to do a rebuild were dabbed, so let the expectation begin.

And like Edmonton, Colorado (and before then, Quebec), Buffalo and every team outside of Pittsburgh before them who tried to strip it to the studs and then quickly build a winner, they found out the road is a lot harder to travel. Their highly touted return for Stone - Brannstrom - has failed to deliver much. Norris has a bum shoulder - tough for a shooter - that isn't going to get better because shoulders are like knees that way. You fix them, but they're never the same and they're easier to re-injure. Pinto had a major injury before he missed half a year to gambling. Chabot has been injured over and over because of the wear and tear he suffered when they had no one to share the load. Tkachuk is a potential 50 goal guy who has to fight because no one else on the team will. In the top 43 players in terms of major penalties incurred, only Tom Wilson and T Freddy also have more than 10 goals. So they've struggled to have their best on the ice at the same time for any amount of time. Their win now moves have been brutal - DeBrincat was terrible here, Chychrun is sort of Phaneuf like in his zone coverage, and Dadonov ended up costing them a first round pick because they screwed up. They've been a bad drama from the end of the old ownership to the way they were forced to fire Dorion and DJ Smith when they really wanted to take their time and let it ride this year. And what's worse, like Buffalo, all those key guys under 25 are making $8M for the next half decade. They have zero motivation to change the way they play.

I cringe at the fact that, for the first time in something like 18 months, they have all of their top C healthy. Stutzle-Norris-Pinto-Grieg is a pretty talented group, and it would be admirable if Stutzle wasn't emotionally fragile and Norris physically so. But they're there now - just in time to face the Bruins. Chabot's also healthy for the first time this year. So it's possible that they get up for the Bruins and give them a much more difficult game than they would have up to the last week or so. But they still have no goalie, and even Jacques Martin can't make them magically defensively responsible, so it's entirely possible they go up 3-0 on the Bruins in the first and lose 9-4.

That's some interesting background, some of which I did not remember. They've made such odd choices in their FA priorities, some of whom you could bet reliably on failing from the beginning (eg. Duchene).

I really liked what little I've seen of Norris. I thought he was gonna take off, and was not really aware of the impacts of shoulder injuries. Is there a perception that Tkachuk is a good leader, or is he part of the lack of chemistry issues?

I think he's generally seen as a good leader but then they can't see anything negative about these players even after a GM change and a coaching change produced almost zero improvement. Pinto's return is the only thing that has really moved the needle. There is some talk about needing more "pros" though because Tkachuk hasn't done anything in the NHL other than collect stats, and so when he's among the guilty for missed assignments and the like, it's hard for him to rip into them. Thr one more obvious negative is that he is an emotional kid and will turn to fighting a guy out of frustration and see that as leading when it really hasn't had that effect for this team.

[fiberglassmask]

Jan 24, 2024 4:54:49 GMT bookboy007 said:

Jan 24, 2024 0:56:31 GMT chappy28 said:

But the big difference between great goalies and great QB's is that while in football, the great QB's suck up the majority of the playoff wins, in hockey it's more about getting hot at the right time than it is about being the best overall goalie.  Franchise goalies give you a chance to win.  Franchise quarterbacks can go out and win you the game. 

Not hard to think of some cup winning goalies that are the equivalent of Bailey Zappe leading the Pats to the promised land. 

I think the "guy gets hot" thing is overplayed, really. I think you get a Trent Dilfer winning the Super Bowl or a Nick Foles about as often as an Antti Niemi. And I have seen franchise goalies go out and win the Cup. About 1/4 of the Conn Smythe winners since 1983 have been goalies, and more of the winners were regular season stars than guys who got hot. Roy, Billy Smith, Hextall, Vernon (finished 2, 4, 4 for the Vez in different years), Giguere (4 seasons where he was top 10 for the Vez) and of course Timmy. Roy absolutely carried the Shabs to the Cup in 1986 and 1993. Hex won his in a losing effort against one of the greatest teams of all time. 

I think it's probably fair to say, though, that the goalie has less control over whether he's going to be the story or not. A great QB touches the ball on every offensive play from scrimmage, so he has all the opportunity to try to force the game to bend to his will. Goaltending is more passive in that you can't make a series of acrobatic saves if the team you're playing against doesn't give you the chance. You might give up two goals and never see either of them and lose 2-1. Nothing you can do at that point to somehow change your fate except hope your offense bails you out and you keep the goals against to just those two.

Absolutely agree with this QB vs Goalies, although I can think of instances when the QB simply dominated the game and the defense refused to let him win. Brady vs Philly in the SB comes to mind where he simply did enough to win the game and be MVP again, but BB’s Malcolm Butler Exile resulted in a defense that literally couldn’t make a play the second half. But that’s an outlier.

As a goaltender, I’ll say it’s true that it’s not just the GAA or other hard stats in how a goaltender becomes the most important player at playoff time. It’s making the timely saves in that 1 goal game. Some goalies are just good at that… Billy Smith. Fuhr. Dryden. Some guys do that in a playoff series and make an opposing team believe they just aren’t gonna tie the score. It’s massive.

There’s something to this “goalie gets hot” affecting a championship run, but it’s very hard to measure. I don’t think it has much to do with franchise goalies, though.