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Post by badhabitude on Aug 7, 2016 18:09:54 GMT
Nate Silver is the "RelFenwick" of prediction models. For a few years it lined up nicely with the Cup winners, now it's all but irrelevant. For your Trump argument of course you will trash any pollster that doesn't see it your way. Doesn't change the truth and that is Trump is in trouble. He is getting his ass handed to him in the purple states. Your opinion of stats will not change that right now. The percentages of Drumpf turning it around are not good either. Just like the conspiracy theorists evidence against their point of view is false or a lie, and even a rumor in favor of their opinion is a truth. For example Record numbers of newly registered voters going to Trump, Trump worshipers rejoice! On Face the Nation this morning, record numbers of Latinos and blacks registering for the first time because they are angry at Trump - Trump worshipers claim it's not true.
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Post by badhabitude on Aug 7, 2016 18:12:22 GMT
Fuck Ter Cruz and all his religious bullshit. I don't know how we can have separation of church and state yet have all of the religion involved in the GOP. Get that God stuff out of there. It doesn't belong! Not in this century. There was a time in my life where I said there would NEVER be a black man as president, I thought there was an outside chance a white woman would make it first. And look what has happened and what might happen. Now a black woman US president? It will not happen in my life time.
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Post by badhabitude on Aug 7, 2016 18:14:21 GMT
If you look at 538 blog, (the most consistently accurate aggregator of polls), it gives predictions based on the Electoral college, the only way Trump can win is through the Electoral College. Today, chance of winning: Clinton: 83.4% Electoral College: 352.9 Trump: 16.5% Electoral College: 184.8 It's not over but it's looking very bad. Dumpster fire needs to get on his Ivanka picture-plastered-bus and get busy. All can change overnight if Wikileaks drops a bomb. The bombshell almost always comes from the place where no one expects it.
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Post by RichHillOntario on Aug 7, 2016 18:16:57 GMT
Those choices would seem to support the less-than-optimistic view of America projected by the Republican National Convention as suggested by some of the networks. Makes sense if you're trying to say the country isn't in good shape under the Democrats and position your party as the solution. Take a little walk to the edge of town and go across the tracks To where the viaduct looms like a bird of doom and it shifts, and crack To where the secrets line the broder fires and the humming wires Boy you know you're never coming back.... That song's got a haunting, ominous, threatening, sinister feel to it - as in the overtones of the RNC? I can hear it in a David Lynch film.
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Post by RichHillOntario on Aug 7, 2016 18:31:45 GMT
Those choices would seem to support the less-than-optimistic view of America projected by the Republican National Convention as suggested by some of the networks. Makes sense if you're trying to say the country isn't in good shape under the Democrats and position your party as the solution. The House and Senate are republiclan controlled. Since 2011 congress approval ratings have been hovering around 9%-13% since then. Barely any bills getting passed and a conservative freedom caucus shutdown, or stunt really, of the US the government cost taxpayers money (yah the fiscal conservatives). Another great show for the conservatives and their congress. Then you look at the US economies with a republican president since Nixon, it isn't good, terrible record actually. What most voters want, is a Reagan-O'Neill or Clinton-Gingrich type relationship, something that works or moves legislature through. Hence the gridlock.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 7, 2016 18:48:55 GMT
Nate Silver is the "RelFenwick" of prediction models. For a few years it lined up nicely with the Cup winners, now it's all but irrelevant. For your Trump argument of course you will trash any pollster that doesn't see it your way. Doesn't change the truth and that is Trump is in trouble. He is getting his ass handed to him in the purple states. Your opinion of stats will not change that right now. The percentages of Drumpf turning it around are not good either. Got nothing to do with Trump, Nate Silver is a bag lapper who's been discredited. He gave Trump a 5% chance of winning the nomination and said Hillary would take Michigan. He's about as relevant these days as Tyler Dellow.
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Post by RichHillOntario on Aug 7, 2016 18:55:38 GMT
Yes! It's rousing, has some patriotic lyrics to it, the video has snippets of what looks like American farmland, kids on a schoolbus, 18 wheelers going down a highway. Definitely a get-up-off-your-seat tune. The showbiz aspect to Trump is big. With it comes a curiosity of everything from wondering if he can keep it together, comparatively speaking, as he's appeared to over the last couple of days to whether he'll actually win. Pretty interesting months ahead. There is still a lot of race to be run, for sure. Hopefully he can keep a lid on it.Outside of the last couple of days, he's had a brutal week or so. Using his most recent rally appearances as a gauge, are you confident he's finally got the message about being more disciplined? No more Scattergun Trump?
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Post by Deleted on Aug 7, 2016 18:58:53 GMT
There is still a lot of race to be run, for sure. Hopefully he can keep a lid on it.Outside of the last couple of days, he's had a brutal week or so. Using his most recent rally appearances as a gauge, are you confident he's finally got the message about being more disciplined? No more Scattergun Trump? Unless he wants to lose by a landslide. The good news is there's plenty of fodder to debate versus Hillary, and the swing in polls shows, imo, so many haven't made their minds.
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Post by UtahGetMeTwo on Aug 7, 2016 19:06:02 GMT
The House and Senate are republiclan controlled. Since 2011 congress approval ratings have been hovering around 9%-13% since then. Barely any bills getting passed and a conservative freedom caucus shutdown, or stunt really, of the US the government cost taxpayers money (yah the fiscal conservatives). Another great show for the conservatives and their congress. Then you look at the US economies with a republican president since Nixon, it isn't good, terrible record actually. What most voters want, is a Reagan-O'Neill or Clinton-Gingrich type relationship, something that works or moves legislature through. Hence the gridlock. So my hope is a Reagan-O'Neill or Clinton-Gingrich type relationship happens again. I think Ryan and McConnell can make congress work again.
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Post by UtahGetMeTwo on Aug 7, 2016 19:08:43 GMT
For your Trump argument of course you will trash any pollster that doesn't see it your way. Doesn't change the truth and that is Trump is in trouble. He is getting his ass handed to him in the purple states. Your opinion of stats will not change that right now. The percentages of Drumpf turning it around are not good either. Got nothing to do with Trump, Nate Silver is a bag lapper who's been discredited. He gave Trump a 5% chance of winning the nomination and said Hillary would take Michigan. He's about as relevant these days as Tyler Dellow. Any poll, any report or data that puts Trump in a bad light is irrelevant to you. Broken record.
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Post by neelycam on Aug 7, 2016 19:46:05 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Aug 7, 2016 20:21:44 GMT
Got nothing to do with Trump, Nate Silver is a bag lapper who's been discredited. He gave Trump a 5% chance of winning the nomination and said Hillary would take Michigan. He's about as relevant these days as Tyler Dellow. Any poll, any report or data that puts Trump in a bad light is irrelevant to you. Broken record. That's not true.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 7, 2016 20:30:21 GMT
Who's jumping on the Trump train with me and henry. It's time this country votes to get rid of the pussies who can't make decisions in fear of hurting people's feelings. Fawk that. Dob't be a chump, vote for Trump!
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Post by NAS on Aug 7, 2016 20:35:56 GMT
All can change overnight if Wikileaks drops a bomb. What bomb can Wikileaks drop that is worse than everything Trump openly does? Seriously, the idea that "new information" will make any difference is an artifact of the past. I guess we will find out. If it's as bad as some say and it leads to an indictment, it could change a lot.
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Post by RichHillOntario on Aug 7, 2016 20:45:21 GMT
Outside of the last couple of days, he's had a brutal week or so. Using his most recent rally appearances as a gauge, are you confident he's finally got the message about being more disciplined? No more Scattergun Trump? Unless he wants to lose by a landslide. The good news is there's plenty of fodder to debate versus Hillary, and the swing in polls shows, imo, so many haven't made their minds. True but he's got to jump all over it and not get bogged down in any petty crap that is of no benefit to him.
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Post by RichHillOntario on Aug 7, 2016 20:54:31 GMT
So my hope is a Reagan-O'Neill or Clinton-Gingrich type relationship happens again. I think Ryan and McConnell can make congress work again. San, what attributes do they have to make you feel they can unclog things? Are they progressively minded? Open to working with Democrats to get bills passed?
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Post by Deleted on Aug 7, 2016 20:55:26 GMT
Unless he wants to lose by a landslide. The good news is there's plenty of fodder to debate versus Hillary, and the swing in polls shows, imo, so many haven't made their minds. True but he's got to jump all over it and not get bogged down in any petty crap that is of no benefit to him. He enjoys these exchanges. I think he's sold on winning a grudge match style election. Here's a feud he got into some years back with Rosie O'Donnell. m.youtube.com/watch?v=3NXEaF-w2MY
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Post by badhabitude on Aug 7, 2016 20:59:51 GMT
Much cheaper than a wall. What about a mine field? A clearly marked mine field. English, French, Spanish, Portuguese. And symbols as well.
Why not?
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Post by Deleted on Aug 7, 2016 21:04:33 GMT
Much cheaper than a wall. What about a mine field? A clearly marked mine field. English, French, Spanish, Portuguese. And symbols as well. Why not? Between this idea and the results of the poll, I think a Trump/BHab ticket could take 65 percent of the popular vote.
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Post by UtahGetMeTwo on Aug 7, 2016 21:55:25 GMT
What bomb can Wikileaks drop that is worse than everything Trump openly does? Seriously, the idea that "new information" will make any difference is an artifact of the past. I guess we will find out. If it's as bad as some say and it leads to an indictment, it could change a lot. Kinda curious why Assange wouldn't just release or drop the emails now ? Especially if he knows there is something on the emails.
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Post by UtahGetMeTwo on Aug 7, 2016 22:04:36 GMT
So my hope is a Reagan-O'Neill or Clinton-Gingrich type relationship happens again. I think Ryan and McConnell can make congress work again. San, what attributes do they have to make you feel they can unclog things? Are they progressively minded? Open to working with Democrats to get bills passed? Lets just say I think that McConnell is super smart and at some point he has to start getting things moving for the Republicans sake. So if Drumpf loses badly, Senate republitards loses some seats and the House loses some seats (not losing control of the house for a long time). McConnell and Ryan need to start doing things to try in bring back voters, make conservatives look good in Americas eyes before mid-terms. The Democracts have not won white college educated demographic, in a presidential election, since 1952. That is not good for Dumpster to be behind right now with those voters. Also Drumpf is getting his bee-hind kicked in millenial voters
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Post by 50belowzero on Aug 7, 2016 22:27:35 GMT
Who's jumping on the Trump train with me and henry. It's time this country votes to get rid of the pussies who can't make decisions in fear of hurting people's feelings. Fawk that. Dob't be a chump, vote for Trump! Is that you Clint?!
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Post by bookboy007 on Aug 7, 2016 22:35:51 GMT
What bomb can Wikileaks drop that is worse than everything Trump openly does? Seriously, the idea that "new information" will make any difference is an artifact of the past. Yeah, unfortunately we live in a time where people confuse non PC statements as being worse than a candidate and party that interferes with free press and free elections. This sounds like melodrama, Henry. The bias in the way you frame that comparison is telling. Trump's had more personal scandals and done more than make a few non PC statements, and framing it as a question of PC is an ingredient in his Kool Aid. In terms of the emails, the worst I've seen of them sounds like junior DNC staffers making ill-advised statements. No proof that they tampered with elections and certainly not in any way comparable to the gerrymandering the Republicans have done over the last decade. But that's the DNC - no direct connection to Clinton or her campaign. I would bet that the only reason there aren't similar RNC emails on wikileaks is that everyone knows the RNC brass were openly working to thwart Trump...and they failed, so there's no story. As for the press, Trump shuts out major news outfits he doesn't like. Hardly a bastion of the fourth amendment.
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Post by NAS on Aug 7, 2016 23:33:27 GMT
I guess we will find out. If it's as bad as some say and it leads to an indictment, it could change a lot. Kinda curious why Assange wouldn't just release or drop the emails now ? Especially if he knows there is something on the emails. It will have a much greater sting when released right before the first debate.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 8, 2016 1:09:58 GMT
Yeah, unfortunately we live in a time where people confuse non PC statements as being worse than a candidate and party that interferes with free press and free elections. This sounds like melodrama, Henry. The bias in the way you frame that comparison is telling. Trump's had more personal scandals and done more than make a few non PC statements, and framing it as a question of PC is an ingredient in his Kool Aid. In terms of the emails, the worst I've seen of them sounds like junior DNC staffers making ill-advised statements. No proof that they tampered with elections and certainly not in any way comparable to the gerrymandering the Republicans have done over the last decade. But that's the DNC - no direct connection to Clinton or her campaign. I would bet that the only reason there aren't similar RNC emails on wikileaks is that everyone knows the RNC brass were openly working to thwart Trump...and they failed, so there's no story. As for the press, Trump shuts out major news outfits he doesn't like. Hardly a bastion of the fourth amendment. Besides what I've mentioned, you ignored how they've interfered with the press. A staff writer from Politico used to send the DNC articles to edit before his own editor, Debbie Wasserman Schlutz called a big wig to complain about criticisms of her on MSNBC (Chuck Todd stepped in to help on that one) and they censured the word "rigged" when talking about the elections, and they've submitted questions to CNN and Meet the Press. What else? Joint fundraisers with the Washington Post, leaking damaging reports about Bernie to the WSJ...this is just what they talked email. There's much much more. Total tampering. www.dailywire.com/news/7777/5-emails-showing-dnc-was-coordinating-press-aaron-bandlerIf you didn't see where they tampered with the elections, you didn't look too deeply into the email dump. I don't know how that's not connected with Hillary? Were they trying to help Trump by undermining Bernie's campaign? I wasn't for Trump until this leak, I was undecided. They've tampered and undermined our civil liberties, and it's time for them to pay at the ballot box.
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