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Post by bookboy007 on Feb 16, 2024 16:39:09 GMT
This all seems a little Debbie--Downerish this morning. That game was odd. The Kraken goals all seemed to be against the run of play, to steal a soccer term. The B's were peppering the Kraken net, only for the puck to go in at the other end. The B's were like Haggs wife -- just completely unable to finish, time and time again. Swayman was fine. You can't asked for too many saves on 3-on-1s with crisp cross-ice passing. McAvoy looked fantastic. Pasta and Coyle uncharacteristically seemed to fumble golden opportunities instead of putting them away. Unlike a couple of recent stinkers, the B's didn't play bad and didn't look lethargic to me. Bad luck game, lots of posts, and some Kraken opportunism. I agree on the game. It reminded me a bit of the STL Game 7 where the Bruins had a lot of top shelf chances early and if they were clicking, they could have put it away before we knew what Sophia was wearing. And yeah, the Debbie Downer thing...I don't know. I don't want to play Rebecca of Sunnybrook Farm, either, but there are a couple of things I'd add to the mix just as observations. The first is simply that the Bruins are still tied for first in points in the East despite a lousy homestand, and second in the NHL behind the one team they did beat - and soundly - on this homestand. I didn't expect that at the start of the year, and if I step back and look at it, my main concern is really that they might have peaked too early. They're at least 9 points up on Tampa (they have a game in hand) and at least 6 up on Toronto (Toronto has two in hand, but is currently 10 back). I think we can reasonably assume that they are going to finish no worse than third in the division, avoiding the crossover and avoiding any first place team in the first round, and if you told me that in October I'd have said that sounds great - can't wait to roll the dice in the playoffs. The second is that slumps happen and the trick is to keep them as short as possible and to get as many points as you can steal when they're happening. The Bruins have been pretty good at that. In the December slump they lost 6 of 8, but racked 3 loser points along the way. They lost 4/5 in January, but racked another 3 loser points, so even if they were 1-4 in W-L, they took home 5 of 10 points. That really mitigates the ability of other teams to gain ground in the standings when you're not at your best. Even on this stand where they've struggled offensively, they came back to tie the Bolts and steal at least one point. I think the season is just correcting itself here. Third is that the Bruins seem to lose to Western teams and non-playoff teams. They had six losses in December. Four were to non-playoff teams based on today's standings, and three were to Western conference teams. The Rangers were the only Eastern conference playoff team they lost to that month, and it was in OT. In January, they lost 5 times. 3 to playoff teams, but also 3 to Western teams. Again they lost one game to a potential Eastern conference playoff opponent. In a month. In the latest slump, they lost to Calgary (west, non-playoff), beat Vancouver, then lost to Washington (non-playoff), then Tampa (eastern playoff team) and Seattle (western, non-playoff). So again, one loss to a potential eastern playoff opponent, in an OT in a game where Vagisil had to make more 10 bell stops down the stretch than Ullmark, so far this month. Why that is is hard to say. It could be that the Bruins don't take non-playoff teams seriously enough, so they aren't sharp. They don't have that laser focus and that translates to missed chances and sloppy plays and ultimately losses. It could be that the Bruins are a target for teams that want to prove that even though the season hasn't gone their way, they can play with the big boys. This would be especially motivating for teams who saw the Bruins embarrass a Montreal team that wasn't ready to play. And it's also possible that the losses to the west are a question of less exposure and less pro-scouting so they aren't as prepared for teams they don't have to battle for a playoff spot and who they are highly unlikely to see in the playoffs even if they make the finals. I get the "can't flip the switch" argument, and when you see a few games like the Calgary and Washington games where the Bruins seem to be exactly what some people feared in the offseason when Bergeron and Krejci announced their retirements (8 goals in the last 5 games, 4 of them in the one win), it's tempting to think Oh, that's what they really are and the early season wins were just a mirage. But I think that's confirmation bias. If you expected doom, any sign that the doom you expected is coming gets magnified despite the fact that the world is still pretty rosy. In January, the same team with the same personnel (mostly) hung 9 on the Shabs, 7 on the Bolts, 4 on Hellabucyk, and overall...they led the NHL in goals for in January (2nd in goals/game). They're 7th overall in goals, 10th in goals/game. The conclusion that they can't score enough to win is just not supported by the stats, and if you're inclined to say Oh, that's all Pasta, then are you also willing to say that the Bolts, who are marginally ahead of the Bruins, are all Kucherov, and they also can't really score enough to compete? I mean, you might be right to say it, but I don't hear it. I guess I still lean in on the Parcells dogma of you are what your record says you are. If they continue struggle, that will continue to be true. But I suspect that the AS break came at a bad time for them and they haven't been able to sharpen it up on the homestand for the usual reasons - not enough practice time coupled with home life demands. Two more games in this stand to sharpen up - both against the West, but both are playoff teams. I expect better games based on the pattern above, and then they go out West, and I would expect that trip to be where we see them find the form they had in January again. Maybe not winning games 9-x or 7-x but finishing chances more regularly. That will be where they show Sweeney that maybe they've earned some buy in from the front office and that will determine how aggressive they are at teh deadline.
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Post by bookboy007 on Feb 16, 2024 16:48:20 GMT
I'm so tired of watching how little the B's defensemen other than 73 do anything offensively..they either make shitty passes or shitty weak shots or miss the net entirely...there is so little offensive skill by the D...that's why Florida is good they have D guys who have skill offensively...B's have to get a d guy who can not only be physical but dynamic a bit on offense. Lindholm, Gryz out there in the final minute of the game...really rough to watch how little they can do to help. Otherwise, felt like the forwards had a ton of chances, JVR just misses, 3 posts, Pasta robbed by Daccord....just wasn't B's night..and this time Sway didn't look like he was better than Ullmark so let's stop the trade 35 rumors and wants. Maybe James Van Winkle would’ve had better luck had it been a soccer net…. Although he’s made Adam Oates-like feeds at times, his hand coordination has been unimpressive around the dirty areas…. Actually that near miss went off his skate…. Even at one mil per I’m sure Donnie’s shaking his head at Van Winkle’s paltry nine goals, which certainly isn’t a good omen come playoff time when checking gets tighter…. Oy! Among players making less than $1M who are not on ELCs or under team control when the contract ends - so no young players 'emerging' into stardom whose salaries don't match in order to compare apples to apples on availability - JVR is the leading scorer. His 0.68 points/game is 0.1 p/g ahead of #2 - Drouin, who plays a lot with MacKinnon and Rantanen in Colorado. There are a number of guys who are scoring more goals, but most of them are shooting percentage anomalies like Michael Carcone who is shooting 23% right now and will never ever be able to sustain or duplicate that. He also leads in shots with 109. JVR's shooting percentage is a career low 8.3%. That might be his age, the way he's used etc., but it might be that he's been snakebit and that a correction is coming. He shot over 10% last year and over 12% two years ago. I would rather him be under expectation in shooting percentage than over if he's also the best UFA cheap ass veteran signing by points produced already.
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Post by bookboy007 on Feb 16, 2024 16:51:17 GMT
Not that i can see. Let's say Sweeney is able to bring in Hanifan and a C of some type, is that enough to go on a run? Everything would have to go right, like a favorable 1st round matchup, favorites getting upset and hot goaltending, plus no injuries. That happened in 2019 and they still blew it, i don't see lady luck shining down that much and to that degree, but i'm a glass half full guy, haha! Yep, and you know it’s fine. Can’t contend every year. One guy I am officially done with is Forbert. 3mill for a third pairing D that can’t stay healthy, has no O ability, and doesn’t use his size in any consistent manner. No thanks. I don't think he's 100%. He used to have more offense and more physicality in his game, but he's turned into just an obstacle for teams to go around or try to shoot through. The "more offense" was never about being a PMD, but he could make plays and he looked for chances. That said, I've seen many examples of this kind of player rising to the occasion in the playoffs.
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Post by bookboy007 on Feb 16, 2024 17:52:16 GMT
Yup. And if the other club shuts him down by smashing him at every opportunity, especially come playoff time, there's not much support. Bingo, plus goalies know the pass is going to go to him for the one timer every chance they get so they track it and get in position. Game over. I don't dispute any of this...but it's been that way for years and it's still thr 8th best in the league. In fact, it's better this year withou Bergie's bumper shot as plan B
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Post by thanx4memORRies on Feb 16, 2024 18:00:46 GMT
Maybe James Van Winkle would’ve had better luck had it been a soccer net…. Although he’s made Adam Oates-like feeds at times, his hand coordination has been unimpressive around the dirty areas…. Actually that near miss went off his skate…. Even at one mil per I’m sure Donnie’s shaking his head at Van Winkle’s paltry nine goals, which certainly isn’t a good omen come playoff time when checking gets tighter…. Oy! thanx...34 points, plus 9 in 50 games...compared to DeBrusk 25 points, plus 11 in 52 games...JVR doesn't get anywhere close to 74 time on ice and yes 74 does a lot of things--skates, swoops, can be effective in a 3 on 3 (stopped using him on PP?), and is a better defensive player...and every time I think to get 34 points from JVR is such a great addition. His passing is awesome and I really think if he was playing on a PP with retired Krejci (and retired Bergeron), the tic-tac-toes would be spectacular on PPs and 88 would be sniping too..now that 73 has turned into a far better offensive type force. So you’ve fallen off Jakey’s bandwagon for now?
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Post by thanx4memORRies on Feb 16, 2024 18:05:33 GMT
Maybe James Van Winkle would’ve had better luck had it been a soccer net…. Although he’s made Adam Oates-like feeds at times, his hand coordination has been unimpressive around the dirty areas…. Actually that near miss went off his skate…. Even at one mil per I’m sure Donnie’s shaking his head at Van Winkle’s paltry nine goals, which certainly isn’t a good omen come playoff time when checking gets tighter…. Oy! Among players making less than $1M who are not on ELCs or under team control when the contract ends - so no young players 'emerging' into stardom whose salaries don't match in order to compare apples to apples on availability - JVR is the leading scorer. His 0.68 points/game is 0.1 p/g ahead of #2 - Drouin, who plays a lot with MacKinnon and Rantanen in Colorado. There are a number of guys who are scoring more goals, but most of them are shooting percentage anomalies like Michael Carcone who is shooting 23% right now and will never ever be able to sustain or duplicate that. He also leads in shots with 109. JVR's shooting percentage is a career low 8.3%. That might be his age, the way he's used etc., but it might be that he's been snakebit and that a correction is coming. He shot over 10% last year and over 12% two years ago. I would rather him be under expectation in shooting percentage than over if he's also the best UFA cheap ass veteran signing by points produced already. Agree that it might be Van Winkle’s age that’s starting to show…. Again, a big “oy” come playoff time….
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Post by kelvana33 on Feb 16, 2024 18:18:30 GMT
Cant keep rolling out players like Steen, Richard etc..and expect to win. This is the NHL, and they are not NHL players. Steen sucks.
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Post by bookboy007 on Feb 16, 2024 18:25:03 GMT
Cant keep rolling out players like Steen, Richard etc..and expect to win. This is the NHL, and they are not NHL players. Steen sucks. If we continue to think the 4th line is the reason the team has scored 4 goals in their last 4 losses, I think we're missing the story. Zero goals against Steen, Boqvist and Richard last night. 2 against while Marchand was on with Coyle and the Geek. I don't care who is on the 4th line - that's a loss.
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Post by bookboy007 on Feb 16, 2024 18:34:13 GMT
thanx...34 points, plus 9 in 50 games...compared to DeBrusk 25 points, plus 11 in 52 games...JVR doesn't get anywhere close to 74 time on ice and yes 74 does a lot of things--skates, swoops, can be effective in a 3 on 3 (stopped using him on PP?), and is a better defensive player...and every time I think to get 34 points from JVR is such a great addition. His passing is awesome and I really think if he was playing on a PP with retired Krejci (and retired Bergeron), the tic-tac-toes would be spectacular on PPs and 88 would be sniping too..now that 73 has turned into a far better offensive type force. So you’ve fallen off Jakey’s bandwagon for now? I think Jake's an interesting question coming to the deadline and his UFA in the off-season. Crickets on an extension for him so far. And yet I would say you could make a case that he's a better all around player now he was before his Bruce induced slump. And he's streaky enough that with 30 games left, it's entirely possible he tops 20 goals and 40 points even after a very slow start. He's a top PK guy - plays as much as Marchand and only Coyle plays more among F. His speed and forecheck are valuable. He's decent at the shootout. He contributes when he's not scoring in ways that matter. But when a player scores 27 on his ELC, I think you expect there's a 30 in there. Maybe just one, but somewhere in there. I'm not so sure with him now. I'm not sure he's found the sweet spot to be both a valuable 200' player and a 30 goal scorer. I think he has to cheat and pick spots to score more now. So my offensive expectations are lowering, and I think the Bruins aren't quite so forgiving. Hence no negotatiations (unless they're very good at keeping them quiet). And that becomes a conundrum because he's up for a deal. He'll want money like a goal scorer, which I'm not sure he is in Boston, but his agent might say TFB, because if he goes to Edmonton and plays top six there next year, he'll score 40. And maybe that works like it did for Bert, but it will mean he goes elsewhere and makes the Bruins look dumb.
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Post by kelvana33 on Feb 16, 2024 18:36:11 GMT
Cant keep rolling out players like Steen, Richard etc..and expect to win. This is the NHL, and they are not NHL players. Steen sucks. If we continue to think the 4th line is the reason the team has scored 4 goals in their last 4 losses, I think we're missing the story. Zero goals against Steen, Boqvist and Richard last night. 2 against while Marchand was on with Coyle and the Geek. I don't care who is on the 4th line - that's a loss. That's my point, the B's 4th line sucks so bad, Montgomery cannot put them out there. The player for the Kracken with the highest minutes was just over 18 minutes. Pastrnak played over 23. This is the case on way to many nights. Tampa has to rely on their big guns way too much. B's need some depth, if not, Marchand, Pasta will be toast come playoff time.
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Post by dannycater on Feb 16, 2024 18:52:42 GMT
thanx...34 points, plus 9 in 50 games...compared to DeBrusk 25 points, plus 11 in 52 games...JVR doesn't get anywhere close to 74 time on ice and yes 74 does a lot of things--skates, swoops, can be effective in a 3 on 3 (stopped using him on PP?), and is a better defensive player...and every time I think to get 34 points from JVR is such a great addition. His passing is awesome and I really think if he was playing on a PP with retired Krejci (and retired Bergeron), the tic-tac-toes would be spectacular on PPs and 88 would be sniping too..now that 73 has turned into a far better offensive type force. So you’ve fallen off Jakey’s bandwagon for now? not for now...for good
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Post by bookboy007 on Feb 16, 2024 18:57:06 GMT
Didn't we spend the last 20 years complaining that the Bruins stars don't play enough? I mean literally every time Claude Julien would roll four lines and the TOI for the 4th climbed over 12 min, people would lose their minds and riot. I just don't buy the idea that the reason Montgomery plays his stars a ton is because he can't play the fourth line. The Bruins were chasing this game; he played his stars a lot because of the particulars of the game. Pastrnak played 17+ vs. Vancouver. He averages about 20. That's 30th among forwards, less than Claude Giroux, and significantly less than some of the game's elite scorers. MacKinnon plays over 23 minutes. He's 26th among forwards in ES TOI at 16 min. Almost 4min of his TOI is PP.
Pasta doesn't skate hard anyway. He could play 45 min and not break a sweat.
I don't know where that argument that Montgomery doesn't play the fourth line because they suck came from, but I've heard it a lot lately as a justification to bitch about how bad the fourth line is. Since December 1, though, there have been 5 goals against while Lauko and Steen are on the ice, and just 2 against Boqvist. Boqvist is +6, Lauko +1. Steen, as I've said before, is indefensible. Wish I could say that about his game.
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Post by thanx4memORRies on Feb 16, 2024 19:29:48 GMT
So you’ve fallen off Jakey’s bandwagon for now? not for now...for good Yeah right….
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Post by bookboy007 on Feb 16, 2024 21:47:29 GMT
If we continue to think the 4th line is the reason the team has scored 4 goals in their last 4 losses, I think we're missing the story. Zero goals against Steen, Boqvist and Richard last night. 2 against while Marchand was on with Coyle and the Geek. I don't care who is on the 4th line - that's a loss. That's my point, the B's 4th line sucks so bad, Montgomery cannot put them out there. The player for the Kracken with the highest minutes was just over 18 minutes. Pastrnak played over 23. This is the case on way to many nights. Tampa has to rely on their big guns way too much. B's need some depth, if not, Marchand, Pasta will be toast come playoff time. If we want to look at the reason the offense has struggled, I'd look at this instead. Since Jan 1, McAvoy has been a freaking animal - 19 games, 12 points and +18. But since the All-Star Break, in 5 games, he's 1-1-2 and +1 with 14 PIM. Lindholm has found some of his offense - 19 games, 10 assists and +16, but the full Thornton and +2 since the break. ...in fact, other than McAvoy, no Bruins defenseman has a point since the break, and other than these two, no Bruin defenseman is above even. Carlo has 5 points in 9 games in January. Toby had 5 in 14 games in January. Shittencrack had 3 in 12, and even Wotherspoon had one in his 10 games. Before anyone goes there, no, Lohrei was not the solution with 0 points in January and a -3 for worst on the team. Also, before the break, the Bruins had the 7th best PK in hockey at 82.8% kill rate; since the break, they're barely over 66%. The PP before the break was 5th best at 26%. Since, it's just 5.3%. Steen, Boqvist, Beecher, Lauko, Brown, Richard - none of those guys have sweet fuck all to do with those numbers. There is no way to blame them for those numbers. And if those number persist, you could have Mario, Wayne and Bossy on that 4th line and I'm still not sure you'd win more than they have since the break.
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Post by dannycater on Feb 17, 2024 1:52:05 GMT
That's my point, the B's 4th line sucks so bad, Montgomery cannot put them out there. The player for the Kracken with the highest minutes was just over 18 minutes. Pastrnak played over 23. This is the case on way to many nights. Tampa has to rely on their big guns way too much. B's need some depth, if not, Marchand, Pasta will be toast come playoff time. If we want to look at the reason the offense has struggled, I'd look at this instead. Since Jan 1, McAvoy has been a freaking animal - 19 games, 12 points and +18. But since the All-Star Break, in 5 games, he's 1-1-2 and +1 with 14 PIM. Lindholm has found some of his offense - 19 games, 10 assists and +16, but the full Thornton and +2 since the break. ...in fact, other than McAvoy, no Bruins defenseman has a point since the break, and other than these two, no Bruin defenseman is above even. Carlo has 5 points in 9 games in January. Toby had 5 in 14 games in January. Shittencrack had 3 in 12, and even Wotherspoon had one in his 10 games. Before anyone goes there, no, Lohrei was not the solution with 0 points in January and a -3 for worst on the team. Also, before the break, the Bruins had the 7th best PK in hockey at 82.8% kill rate; since the break, they're barely over 66%. The PP before the break was 5th best at 26%. Since, it's just 5.3%. Steen, Boqvist, Beecher, Lauko, Brown, Richard - none of those guys have sweet fuck all to do with those numbers. There is no way to blame them for those numbers. And if those number persist, you could have Mario, Wayne and Bossy on that 4th line and I'm still not sure you'd win more than they have since the break. The B's get virtually nothing out of their d guys on offense...while all the other good teams pretty much do.
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Post by kelvana33 on Feb 17, 2024 2:35:55 GMT
That's my point, the B's 4th line sucks so bad, Montgomery cannot put them out there. The player for the Kracken with the highest minutes was just over 18 minutes. Pastrnak played over 23. This is the case on way to many nights. Tampa has to rely on their big guns way too much. B's need some depth, if not, Marchand, Pasta will be toast come playoff time. If we want to look at the reason the offense has struggled, I'd look at this instead. Since Jan 1, McAvoy has been a freaking animal - 19 games, 12 points and +18. But since the All-Star Break, in 5 games, he's 1-1-2 and +1 with 14 PIM. Lindholm has found some of his offense - 19 games, 10 assists and +16, but the full Thornton and +2 since the break. ...in fact, other than McAvoy, no Bruins defenseman has a point since the break, and other than these two, no Bruin defenseman is above even. Carlo has 5 points in 9 games in January. Toby had 5 in 14 games in January. Shittencrack had 3 in 12, and even Wotherspoon had one in his 10 games. Before anyone goes there, no, Lohrei was not the solution with 0 points in January and a -3 for worst on the team. Also, before the break, the Bruins had the 7th best PK in hockey at 82.8% kill rate; since the break, they're barely over 66%. The PP before the break was 5th best at 26%. Since, it's just 5.3%. Steen, Boqvist, Beecher, Lauko, Brown, Richard - none of those guys have sweet fuck all to do with those numbers. There is no way to blame them for those numbers. And if those number persist, you could have Mario, Wayne and Bossy on that 4th line and I'm still not sure you'd win more than they have since the break. I disagree, when you rely on your horses too much, they get tired. What are they going to do if one gets injured? My point of this is, they need some depth. They need the 4th line to provide, at the least a breather. You cant sustain a 17-18 minute difference between your top and bottom forwards. I think we are starting to see that now. Sweeney needs to get some help for the bottom 6, it would really help the top 6.
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Post by pastamon on Feb 17, 2024 2:42:49 GMT
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Post by bookboy007 on Feb 17, 2024 18:39:06 GMT
If we want to look at the reason the offense has struggled, I'd look at this instead. Since Jan 1, McAvoy has been a freaking animal - 19 games, 12 points and +18. But since the All-Star Break, in 5 games, he's 1-1-2 and +1 with 14 PIM. Lindholm has found some of his offense - 19 games, 10 assists and +16, but the full Thornton and +2 since the break. ...in fact, other than McAvoy, no Bruins defenseman has a point since the break, and other than these two, no Bruin defenseman is above even. Carlo has 5 points in 9 games in January. Toby had 5 in 14 games in January. Shittencrack had 3 in 12, and even Wotherspoon had one in his 10 games. Before anyone goes there, no, Lohrei was not the solution with 0 points in January and a -3 for worst on the team. Also, before the break, the Bruins had the 7th best PK in hockey at 82.8% kill rate; since the break, they're barely over 66%. The PP before the break was 5th best at 26%. Since, it's just 5.3%. Steen, Boqvist, Beecher, Lauko, Brown, Richard - none of those guys have sweet fuck all to do with those numbers. There is no way to blame them for those numbers. And if those number persist, you could have Mario, Wayne and Bossy on that 4th line and I'm still not sure you'd win more than they have since the break. I disagree, when you rely on your horses too much, they get tired. What are they going to do if one gets injured? My point of this is, they need some depth. They need the 4th line to provide, at the least a breather. You cant sustain a 17-18 minute difference between your top and bottom forwards. I think we are starting to see that now. Sweeney needs to get some help for the bottom 6, it would really help the top 6. I agree that if you rely on them too much is a problem. I disagree that they play the stars too much. Every team plays its top guys 20 or so now. Bruins are right in line with Pastrnak.
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