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Post by bookboy007 on Apr 9, 2024 16:29:10 GMT
I want JDB back but I want him to recognize his inconsistency and frustration level he causes his coaches and take a below market deal. He should be 4x4.5 but I'd go 5x5.5 max for him. Let’s reward the underachiever long term…. That money can be better spent elsewhere…. I'm not so sure that's a good way to think about it. I mean, I have long thought that the play for the Bruins, if one could be made, was to use DeBrusk as a key piece of a trade for a C and upgrade down the middle. It hasn't happened, and it's too late for it to happen now because he's not young enough to be that now. So I'm not exactly Captain Jake. But I wouldn't underestimate the hole that mid-roster Jake (and Freddy for that matter) would leave if he wasn't re-signed or replaced. I think he does a lot of good things, meaning it's really a question of what he brings to the table and how much it costs to get that on the open market vs. how much they can give him or choose to give him. He plays the 5th most minutes of the forward group behind the two C, the C, and Pastrnak. He plays in all situations. He's one of the few consistently effective SO players on the team. He's become one of their best forwards on the back-check, showing a ton of hustle to go with his speed. And his attitude all year has been up-beat despite starting with an awful slump. He's one of the only Bruins to have a better points/game since Christmas than before. It's not going to be cheap to replace all the things he does for the team short of deciding to give his roster spot to ELC Lysell or something like that. Curiously enough, I saw a some social media thing where they asked two guys in Bruins jerseys who had the most GWG in Bruins history (they missed Bucyk at 1 and Espo at 4...how? I don't know.). Debrusk is 18th all time in GWG for the Bruins, tied with O'Reilly. 3 back of Milt and 5 back of Cash. Kid has scored some big goals for this franchise, including in the playoffs. Interesting to look at the market in these cases. Using CapFriendly, I eliminated ELC players from the mix and set a range for guys who score broadly in Jake's range, play over 15 min a night, etc.. Trying to get the closest comparables in terms of usage. In terms of points: Coleman has a cap hit of $4.9M but a salary of $5.9M. He's having a career year offensively playing over 17 min a night, and he's +18 on a non-playoff team. Mason Marchment also having a career year: $4.8M Toffoli on a show me deal - $4.2M Tippett is currently on the back of a lowball second deal, but based on his play just signed a $6.2x8 deal in Philthy. Teravainen is $5.875M in cash, slightly less in cap hit. Bunting is $4.5M Farabee's cap hit is $5M Henrique is $5.85M Those are the top producing guys, but closer to Jake's production you have Bennet ($6.35M salary; $4.425 Cap), Backlund, Crouse, and almost identical stats for Bertuzzi. I don't think $5.5M on a medium length deal is "rewarding" DeBrusk for anything. I think it's about right as a market assessment of his value based on comparables meaning you can decide you're mad that he didn't turn into a 40 goal guy and try to pay someone else the same amount to do what he does, or you can pay him. I think you have to factor the massive growth of the Cap in there, too, so you're probably not too far wrong to think the kid's getting $6M on the open market.
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Post by sandogbrewin on Apr 9, 2024 16:32:09 GMT
"He plays the 5th most minutes of the forward group behind the two C, the C, and Pastrnak. He plays in all situations. He's one of the few consistently effective SO players on the team. He's become one of their best forwards on the back-check, showing a ton of hustle to go with his speed. And his attitude all year has been up-beat despite starting with an awful slump. He's one of the only Bruins to have a better points/game since Christmas than before."
Not worth the AAV and term DeBrusk will want. He's not staying on the cheap.
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Post by dannycater on Apr 9, 2024 18:36:06 GMT
Root Beer is moving on...that I think is a given. But let's get the most out of him before he does.
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Post by bookboy007 on Apr 9, 2024 21:53:15 GMT
"He plays the 5th most minutes of the forward group behind the two C, the C, and Pastrnak. He plays in all situations. He's one of the few consistently effective SO players on the team. He's become one of their best forwards on the back-check, showing a ton of hustle to go with his speed. And his attitude all year has been up-beat despite starting with an awful slump. He's one of the only Bruins to have a better points/game since Christmas than before." Not worth the AAV and term DeBrusk will want. He's not staying on the cheap. Have we seen anything other than rank speculation on what he's asking? In this market, he's worth $5.5M or even $6M, considering that the Ducks gave Killorn $6.25M to put up similar stats to what DeBrusk has this year, and Palat got $6M. Both are based on what they did with Tampa Bay, yeah, but they're also contracts signed to a lower and more uncertain Cap. So DeBrusk doesn't have to be on par with them to be worth a salary on par with what they got last year or the year before. But there aren't many contending teams who can afford to pay their 5th most important forward that kind of cash. And I think that's where he sits behind Pastrnak, Marchand, Zacha and Coyle. I won't be surprised if he gets more than $6M on the market, especially with the Cap going up steeply in the next few years. I could see a team like Ottawa making a play for him on the premise that he's young enough to fit their core but steeped in a winning culture and plays a strong two-way game. I could even see Anaheim making a play for him, and I could see Nick Foligno singing his praises in Chicago. He's got the wheels to be what Hall wasn't due to injury - a responsible, speedy winger who can play with Bedard. I think his future is less certain than some here. I think the Bruins like him more than the naysayers here, but they're also practical about it. They know it's not like there are great options out there if they let him go and they know with the Cap going up, it's going to be competitive and some teams are going to overpay players who are in DeBrusk's role. If JDB has a great playoff, they might still take a run at keeping him...though by then, he might feel like he has nothing to lose by going to market.
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Post by bookboy007 on Apr 9, 2024 21:53:30 GMT
Root Beer is moving on...that I think is a given. But let's get the most out of him before he does. Why is it a given?
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Post by sandogbrewin on Apr 9, 2024 23:00:38 GMT
"He plays the 5th most minutes of the forward group behind the two C, the C, and Pastrnak. He plays in all situations. He's one of the few consistently effective SO players on the team. He's become one of their best forwards on the back-check, showing a ton of hustle to go with his speed. And his attitude all year has been up-beat despite starting with an awful slump. He's one of the only Bruins to have a better points/game since Christmas than before." Not worth the AAV and term DeBrusk will want. He's not staying on the cheap. Have we seen anything other than rank speculation on what he's asking? In this market, he's worth $5.5M or even $6M, considering that the Ducks gave Killorn $6.25M to put up similar stats to what DeBrusk has this year, and Palat got $6M. Both are based on what they did with Tampa Bay, yeah, but they're also contracts signed to a lower and more uncertain Cap. So DeBrusk doesn't have to be on par with them to be worth a salary on par with what they got last year or the year before. But there aren't many contending teams who can afford to pay their 5th most important forward that kind of cash. And I think that's where he sits behind Pastrnak, Marchand, Zacha and Coyle. I won't be surprised if he gets more than $6M on the market, especially with the Cap going up steeply in the next few years. I could see a team like Ottawa making a play for him on the premise that he's young enough to fit their core but steeped in a winning culture and plays a strong two-way game. I could even see Anaheim making a play for him, and I could see Nick Foligno singing his praises in Chicago. He's got the wheels to be what Hall wasn't due to injury - a responsible, speedy winger who can play with Bedard. I think his future is less certain than some here. I think the Bruins like him more than the naysayers here, but they're also practical about it. They know it's not like there are great options out there if they let him go and they know with the Cap going up, it's going to be competitive and some teams are going to overpay players who are in DeBrusk's role. If JDB has a great playoff, they might still take a run at keeping him...though by then, he might feel like he has nothing to lose by going to market. Why wouldn't his agent go out and ask for max dollars ? I wouldn't be surprised if DeBrusk got $6M AAV. But I don't want Jake to get that in Boston he's not worth it.
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Post by bookboy007 on Apr 10, 2024 0:53:48 GMT
Have we seen anything other than rank speculation on what he's asking? In this market, he's worth $5.5M or even $6M, considering that the Ducks gave Killorn $6.25M to put up similar stats to what DeBrusk has this year, and Palat got $6M. Both are based on what they did with Tampa Bay, yeah, but they're also contracts signed to a lower and more uncertain Cap. So DeBrusk doesn't have to be on par with them to be worth a salary on par with what they got last year or the year before. But there aren't many contending teams who can afford to pay their 5th most important forward that kind of cash. And I think that's where he sits behind Pastrnak, Marchand, Zacha and Coyle. I won't be surprised if he gets more than $6M on the market, especially with the Cap going up steeply in the next few years. I could see a team like Ottawa making a play for him on the premise that he's young enough to fit their core but steeped in a winning culture and plays a strong two-way game. I could even see Anaheim making a play for him, and I could see Nick Foligno singing his praises in Chicago. He's got the wheels to be what Hall wasn't due to injury - a responsible, speedy winger who can play with Bedard. I think his future is less certain than some here. I think the Bruins like him more than the naysayers here, but they're also practical about it. They know it's not like there are great options out there if they let him go and they know with the Cap going up, it's going to be competitive and some teams are going to overpay players who are in DeBrusk's role. If JDB has a great playoff, they might still take a run at keeping him...though by then, he might feel like he has nothing to lose by going to market. Why wouldn't his agent go out and ask for max dollars ? I wouldn't be surprised if DeBrusk got $6M AAV. But I don't want Jake to get that in Boston he's not worth it. I think he probably is in that it will cost them as much to replace him. Guessing that the fact they haven't signed him yet means they have a plan B above a certain price point.
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Post by sandogbrewin on Apr 10, 2024 1:20:51 GMT
Why wouldn't his agent go out and ask for max dollars ? I wouldn't be surprised if DeBrusk got $6M AAV. But I don't want Jake to get that in Boston he's not worth it. I think he probably is in that it will cost them as much to replace him. Guessing that the fact they haven't signed him yet means they have a plan B above a certain price point. Not gonna cost $6M to replace DeBrusks goal output.
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Post by bookboy007 on Apr 10, 2024 1:56:40 GMT
I think he probably is in that it will cost them as much to replace him. Guessing that the fact they haven't signed him yet means they have a plan B above a certain price point. Not gonna cost $6M to replace DeBrusks goal output. He does more than score now.
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Post by sandogbrewin on Apr 10, 2024 2:02:43 GMT
Not gonna cost $6M to replace DeBrusks goal output. He does more than score now. Oh yah turns the puck over and avoids contact.
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Post by bookboy007 on Apr 10, 2024 2:07:13 GMT
He does more than score now. Oh yah turns the puck over and avoids contact. He learned that watching Marchand.
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Post by thanx4memORRies on Apr 10, 2024 4:02:25 GMT
Have we seen anything other than rank speculation on what he's asking? In this market, he's worth $5.5M or even $6M, considering that the Ducks gave Killorn $6.25M to put up similar stats to what DeBrusk has this year, and Palat got $6M. Both are based on what they did with Tampa Bay, yeah, but they're also contracts signed to a lower and more uncertain Cap. So DeBrusk doesn't have to be on par with them to be worth a salary on par with what they got last year or the year before. But there aren't many contending teams who can afford to pay their 5th most important forward that kind of cash. And I think that's where he sits behind Pastrnak, Marchand, Zacha and Coyle. I won't be surprised if he gets more than $6M on the market, especially with the Cap going up steeply in the next few years. I could see a team like Ottawa making a play for him on the premise that he's young enough to fit their core but steeped in a winning culture and plays a strong two-way game. I could even see Anaheim making a play for him, and I could see Nick Foligno singing his praises in Chicago. He's got the wheels to be what Hall wasn't due to injury - a responsible, speedy winger who can play with Bedard. I think his future is less certain than some here. I think the Bruins like him more than the naysayers here, but they're also practical about it. They know it's not like there are great options out there if they let him go and they know with the Cap going up, it's going to be competitive and some teams are going to overpay players who are in DeBrusk's role. If JDB has a great playoff, they might still take a run at keeping him...though by then, he might feel like he has nothing to lose by going to market. Why wouldn't his agent go out and ask for max dollars ? I wouldn't be surprised if DeBrusk got $6M AAV. But I don't want Jake to get that in Boston he's not worth it. And if Jakey gets too greedy he could end up like a certain B’S player did last year following a nice one-round playoff showing…. Don’t know why he should get one more cent than he’s getting now…. To become more responsible defensively his offense has regressed…. Nobody expects him to be Rick Middleton but the B’S need him to be better offensively…. I won’t lose any sleep if Jakey’s gone in a few weeks….
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Post by thanx4memORRies on Apr 10, 2024 4:07:11 GMT
Oh yah turns the puck over and avoids contact. He learned that watching Marchand. And had Jakey become half the player Marchy is we wouldn’t be having this discussion of whether we want him back or not….
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Post by bookboy007 on Apr 10, 2024 13:36:55 GMT
He learned that watching Marchand. And had Jakey become half the player Marchy is we wouldn’t be having this discussion of whether we want him back or not…. I was just being a dick with the Marchand comparison, but....we're talking about a price that aligns with what marchand makes now. When Marchand signed in 2016, he was coming off of a career high of 61 points and 37 goals. He was 28. His career production read 454 games, 153-136-289. +136. 0.64 points/game. Debrusk has played 462 games, has 137-128-265 +54 and 0.57 points/game. He's 28 at the atart of next season. Difference of 24 points, 0.05 points/game. Now, he's not Marchand and we know that. But the Cap when Marchand signed was way lower than it will be when Jake's deal is mid way. And Marchand's deal is one of the most team friendly in league history in the cap world. As a % of the cap, Marchand's deal today would be 7.8m. Food for thought in whether people are reacting emotionally or rationally to giving this player away for nothing but $4M in cap relief.
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Post by dannycater on Apr 10, 2024 13:39:21 GMT
Right now, just like 74 to get on the board. What he does after the 24 playoffs, not gonna worry one way or other if he stays or go.
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Post by sandogbrewin on Apr 10, 2024 14:35:18 GMT
Jake DeBrusk over the last 7GP:
0G-1A-1PTS
Jake DeBrusk over the previous 10 GP:
5G-7A-12PTS
No way would DeBrusk be getting $6M a year from this armchair GM. Especially from a player that asked for a trade at one point.
I would consider $5M-$5.5M AAV but not long term.
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Post by thanx4memORRies on Apr 10, 2024 14:37:19 GMT
And had Jakey become half the player Marchy is we wouldn’t be having this discussion of whether we want him back or not…. I was just being a dick with the Marchand comparison, but....we're talking about a price that aligns with what marchand makes now. When Marchand signed in 2016, he was coming off of a career high of 61 points and 37 goals. He was 28. His career production read 454 games, 153-136-289. +136. 0.64 points/game. Debrusk has played 462 games, has 137-128-265 +54 and 0.57 points/game. He's 28 at the atart of next season. Difference of 24 points, 0.05 points/game. Now, he's not Marchand and we know that. But the Cap when Marchand signed was way lower than it will be when Jake's deal is mid way. And Marchand's deal is one of the most team friendly in league history in the cap world. As a % of the cap, Marchand's deal today would be 7.8m. Food for thought in whether people are reacting emotionally or rationally to giving this player away for nothing but $4M in cap relief. Just because the cap goes up doesn’t mean you just start throwing money around as if it was confetti at a wedding…. You still need to be penny wise because the lion’s share of those increases are going to go to the difference makers, of which Jakey certainly isn’t one…. And furthermore, Jakey’s having his worst offensive season in the year that he should’ve been tearing it up…. Luckily that Donnie’s seeing it before it’s time to take the cheque book out…. Maybe Jakey’s just satisfied with getting paid whatever for playing hockey for a job…. That’s food for thought also….
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Post by The OC on Apr 10, 2024 16:33:15 GMT
I don’t think the Bruins want to keep Jake and I don’t think he wants to stay.
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Post by bookboy007 on Apr 10, 2024 17:41:54 GMT
Right now, just like 74 to get on the board. What he does after the 24 playoffs, not gonna worry one way or other if he stays or go. Yep. That's kind of where I'm at. He's the classic streaky player where if he played like he does when he's hot all the time, he'd cost you 8 figures, but when he's cold, you figure he's not worth 7 figures. On average, he's a 0.5-0.65 points/game player, but when he's on, he's over a point/game for a couple of weeks straight. You want that hot streak to occur in the playoffs. Could win you a round or two.
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Post by dannycater on Apr 10, 2024 17:45:15 GMT
Right now, just like 74 to get on the board. What he does after the 24 playoffs, not gonna worry one way or other if he stays or go. Yep. That's kind of where I'm at. He's the classic streaky player where if he played like he does when he's hot all the time, he'd cost you 8 figures, but when he's cold, you figure he's not worth 7 figures. On average, he's a 0.5-0.65 points/game player, but when he's on, he's over a point/game for a couple of weeks straight. You want that hot streak to occur in the playoffs. Could win you a round or two. To add, remember that Sweeney could have dealt him at trade deadline and some thought that would happen, so he is gambling basically on Root Beer performing in the playoffs for B's. Which I think was the right thing to do and as book says, streaky player so maybe he gets streaky good in postseason. We all want that.
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Post by bookboy007 on Apr 10, 2024 17:45:34 GMT
I don’t think the Bruins want to keep Jake and I don’t think he wants to stay. Sweeney addressed it when Jake's agent said talks were stalled or whatever. I think the gist of what he said was that they like him as a player but they haven't agreed on what his value is. And I think that's exactly the truth. I would bet that if Jake would re-sign for $4.5Mx5, there would be an announcement. But he's going to exercise his right to test the market at this point; why wouldn't he if the Bruins aren't making him feel like a priority? I don't think he hates the idea of staying. I just think he thinks he'll have a better chance to be a top player elsewhere. With the dollars to go with it.
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Post by bookboy007 on Apr 10, 2024 18:03:42 GMT
I was just being a dick with the Marchand comparison, but....we're talking about a price that aligns with what marchand makes now. When Marchand signed in 2016, he was coming off of a career high of 61 points and 37 goals. He was 28. His career production read 454 games, 153-136-289. +136. 0.64 points/game. Debrusk has played 462 games, has 137-128-265 +54 and 0.57 points/game. He's 28 at the atart of next season. Difference of 24 points, 0.05 points/game. Now, he's not Marchand and we know that. But the Cap when Marchand signed was way lower than it will be when Jake's deal is mid way. And Marchand's deal is one of the most team friendly in league history in the cap world. As a % of the cap, Marchand's deal today would be 7.8m. Food for thought in whether people are reacting emotionally or rationally to giving this player away for nothing but $4M in cap relief. Just because the cap goes up doesn’t mean you just start throwing money around as if it was confetti at a wedding…. You still need to be penny wise because the lion’s share of those increases are going to go to the difference makers, of which Jakey certainly isn’t one…. And furthermore, Jakey’s having his worst offensive season in the year that he should’ve been tearing it up…. Luckily that Donnie’s seeing it before it’s time to take the cheque book out…. Maybe Jakey’s just satisfied with getting paid whatever for playing hockey for a job…. That’s food for thought also…. No, but just like you have to make decisions on whether you want to eat Kraft Dinner or roast beef when grocery prices go up, the market means you either spend more to get what you used to get for less, or you choose to go budget and hope you don't get tape worms. To my mind, the most logical way to compare contracts over time against a shifting salary cap is by percentage of Cap when signed. Marc Savard's deal with the Bruins was $5M/season, but it was 11.36% of the Cap. If he was a free agent this summer, the Bruins would need to offer him over $10M to make it the same value deal. The same %Cap as Marchand got would now be over $7.5M, so comparing just the dollar amounts doesn't really work. For six of his seven seasons, DeBrusk is an aggregate 0.596 points/game player. Per 82 games, he scores 25.8 goals over that time and 35.7 ES points. I think if you look at guys with similar records of production and compare their contracts (ELC excluded), the %Cap they're getting probably aligns to something like $6M based on what I've seen.
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Post by bookboy007 on Apr 10, 2024 18:05:46 GMT
Yep. That's kind of where I'm at. He's the classic streaky player where if he played like he does when he's hot all the time, he'd cost you 8 figures, but when he's cold, you figure he's not worth 7 figures. On average, he's a 0.5-0.65 points/game player, but when he's on, he's over a point/game for a couple of weeks straight. You want that hot streak to occur in the playoffs. Could win you a round or two. To add, remember that Sweeney could have dealt him at trade deadline and some thought that would happen, so he is gambling basically on Root Beer performing in the playoffs for B's. Which I think was the right thing to do and as book says, streaky player so maybe he gets streaky good in postseason. We all want that. And like I said to Sandog above, I think the fact he's not signed means they're very comfortable losing him if they do. I would guess they didn't like the return they were offered in deals at the deadline because it didn't help them enough now, and they would rather see what they can do in the playoffs and get nothing for him because in the offseason they already have a map to use his cap space in a way they think makes them better. Ditto Grz.
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Post by islamorada on Apr 10, 2024 23:59:34 GMT
To add, remember that Sweeney could have dealt him at trade deadline and some thought that would happen, so he is gambling basically on Root Beer performing in the playoffs for B's. Which I think was the right thing to do and as book says, streaky player so maybe he gets streaky good in postseason. We all want that. And like I said to Sandog above, I think the fact he's not signed means they're very comfortable losing him if they do. I would guess they didn't like the return they were offered in deals at the deadline because it didn't help them enough now, and they would rather see what they can do in the playoffs and get nothing for him because in the offseason they already have a map to use his cap space in a way they think makes them better. Ditto Grz. Debrusk is a goner primarily due to his productive seasons in the past despite his inconsistencies. Calgary is one place willing to pay. As for Grys, I feel he will sign with the Bs if he lowers his price to 2m in a short term contract, I doubt it but he is comfortable with the area and team then why not. He and his agent know his limitations.
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Post by bookboy007 on Apr 11, 2024 14:19:25 GMT
And like I said to Sandog above, I think the fact he's not signed means they're very comfortable losing him if they do. I would guess they didn't like the return they were offered in deals at the deadline because it didn't help them enough now, and they would rather see what they can do in the playoffs and get nothing for him because in the offseason they already have a map to use his cap space in a way they think makes them better. Ditto Grz. Debrusk is a goner primarily due to his productive seasons in the past despite his inconsistencies. Calgary is one place willing to pay. As for Grys, I feel he will sign with the Bs if he lowers his price to 2m in a short term contract, I doubt it but he is comfortable with the area and team then why not. He and his agent no his limitations. We've heard nothing about the Grz contract situation, have we? Maybe I haven't been paying attention and there's been talk in Boston? But I'm inclined to think they're being secretive because of all the Boston boy, son of the janitor makes good stuff and the optics of kicking him to the curb.
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