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Post by bookboy007 on Mar 31, 2024 16:45:56 GMT
I think the issue is stats and expectations. Stats say one in 5 Cups is won by the PT team, 2 per decade. Expectation is that if you are the best RS team, you are superior and should beat everyone handily. The fact is that winning four games against the same team is hard even if you have a significantly better RS advantage. And the RS is such a marathon that most teams with great end of season records get there as much because they stayed healthy and avoided slumps more than anything else. We saw last year and in 2019, the team that starts the playoffs is what matters, not what they were doing in November. OK, I decided to dig a little more into this question of the 'curse' of trying to win the Stanley Cup after winning the President's Trophy (1985-86). So I looked it up on hockeydb.com and checked the regular season positions of Stanley Cup winners in two ways - going back to Pres. Trophy winners only and winners since the beginning of expansion (1967-68). Here's what I found. Cup winners from 1986 to 2023 finishing... 1st - 8x (21.62%) 2nd - 4x (10.81%) 3rd - 6x (16.22%) 4th - 4x (10.81%) 5th - 3x (8.11%) 6th - 3x (8.11%) 7th - 3x (8.11%) 8th - 2x (5.41%) 9th - 3x (8.11%) 10th - 0x (0.00%) 11th - 0x (0.00%) 12th - 0x (0.00%) 13th - 0x (0.00%) 14th - 1x (2.70%) - 2014 LA 15th - 0x (0.00%) 16th - 0x (0.00%) How about going back to 1967-68? Cup winners finishing... 1st - 20x (36.36%) 2nd - 7x (12.73%) 3rd - 6x (10.91%) 4th - 5x (9.09%) 5th - 5x (9.09%) 6th - 3x (5.45%) 7th - 3x (5.45%) 8th - 2x (3.64%) 9th - 3x (5.45%) 10th - 0x (0.00%) 11th - 0x (0.00%) 12th - 0x (0.00%) 13th - 0x (0.00%) 14th - 1x (1.82%) - 2014 LA 15th - 0x (0.00%) 16th - 0x (0.00%) Of course there are no guarantees, but finishing 1st overall in the regular season is STILL the best place to start the playoffs. Finishing 10th to 16th and winning the Cup is next to impossible, but finishing 2nd to 5th still shows that 9-13% have won the Cup. 6th to 9th place finishers have won the Cup around 3.5% to 5.5% of the time. Not great either. I'm glad someone did the looking. It kind of lines up with common sense - the best team should have the best chance, but back to that point on expectations vs reality, even if you are a Parcell's fan, there is at least some distance between best record and best team in the NHL. If you managed to trade for McDavid, MacKinnon, Makar, Matthews, and whoever else you think you need for an autocup, and so you come out of the gate 41-1-0 (trap game), then in January they all get long COVID and whatever itchy thing keeps Hossa on LTIR. You manage to nurse that lead and with the Pres Trophy. But you aren't that team. There's that bit of folk wisdom that games in October matter as much as games in March and that's true - for your record. For making the playoffs. But they don't matter in terms of who is the best team on the ice when the records are wiped clean and meaningful hockey starts. Like most stats, I think this one is most useful if you read it in a way that takes some of the variability of a long season into account. Like: Since expansion, 69% of the Cups have been won by teams finishing 4th or above, 78% 5th or above. That would suggest that there is typically a group of top teams going into the playoffs, and while one or two or three might crap the bed on the way, one of them is going to benefit from others' failing and take the Cup home. Being first overall, though, might be nothing more than playing one or two fewer back-to-backs on the road. But being too far back into the pack puts you in a place where you need to beat too many talented teams, and that's tough road.
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Post by bookboy007 on Mar 31, 2024 17:48:04 GMT
Feels like it should be officially marked here that they have clinched. 101 points. Tied in points with Carolina for 4th overall behind the Rangers and Stars. 2 up on Florida, Cats with a game in hand, and one more head to head to go. Rangers have three points and a game in hand on the Bruins, so it looks like the Bruins will face the Laffs or the Bolts.
Mission accomplished. After last year, I'm not sure I care about any other regular season mark. Especially since they really can't predict how finishing first or second will affect who they play in the first round.
I'm far more concerned about getting them ready for the playoffs. Because despite their record, they've been carrying some high profile passengers for a while now. Like - two months. Since Feb 1st...
Charlie Coyle is a team worst -14. That's 10th worst in the league over that stretch. He only has 13 points, and only 6 at ES and 2 SH, while playing 18:30 a night. That's awful for the top C in terms of TOI/game. If Coyle averages 2 minuses every three games in the playoffs, it's going to be impossible to beat anyone. And sure enough, over the last two months, the Bruins have a worse points% than likely first round opponents Tampa and Toronto, but also Florida and Washington - so pretty much every team they might play in round one or two. Wakey wakey, Charles.
Brad Marchand has just 3 goals, 16 points, and he's dash 4. He's been a PP ghost with just 4 assists and no goals. He plays more than any forward but Pastrnak. He only has 2 ES goals in 26 games. That's about 7 for the year at that pace. At one point before the ASG, he was on pace for his first 40 goal campaign. He's too important to this team to play this badly. I find he's barely noticeable in some games, and I worry that age is taking the edge off his quickness. I can't remember the last time he danced someone to actually score a goal.
Pains me to say it, but Trent Frederic was all set for a breakout season and then hit the wall. He's fallen off, even though with 9 ES points in 26 games, he's still better than Coyle and only two back of Marchand. But he's dash 9. Only Coyle's worse on this team, and it's probably more troubling that they don't play on the same line. If he doesn't get his game in shape, I think I might have to re-think the idea that he needs to be part of the plan longer term.
McAvoy has gone 3-8-11 over this stretch, but he's -7. Third worst on the team. And Carlo is -6, but he only has the one goal in this stretch and no assists. If those two are a combined -13, you are giving up too many goals.
When I look at all of that, it looks like the Dave Lewis Bruins to me. Your top C and veteran leader/captain are both putting up serious liability numbers. Two of your top 3 D, the foundation of your build, are a combined -13 and they almost never play together, so that's a lot of goals against when two of your three best D are on the ice. How in the fuck are they a 100 point team?
Because over the last 26 games....
Pastrnak still scores, and somehow despite his goofy giveaways and blind passes, he remains +6.
Zacha, for all the criticism of him as an uninspiring C, has the second best points/game on the team (0.81) and is +4. He's also winning close to 57% of his draws.00
Geekie is now their second line C. 8-6-14 and -4. Not ideal that he's -4, but that's miles ahead of Coyle as is the 8 goals. But he wins faceoffs about as well as dogs play poker.
DeBrusk, though a -6 player, has found the range with 6ESG - about what a 25 goal scorer should have.
The 4th line has really carried them. Boqvist, Brazeau have 17 combined points and are both +4. Since his recall, Beecher is +2 and has 3 points in 7 games.
Heinen is -2, but his 12 points in 26 games has filled in the cracks that the "big guns" have left.
Peake, Wotherspoon, Shattenkirk, Lohrei and Grz - all the D not in the "Big Three" - are all plus players. How is that even possible? They're a combined +16. The big three are a combined dash 15. HOW in the fuck is that happening? And to danny's point - Shattenkirk has been giving them offense and NOT giving it back in the D zone.
When I say Grz is the least of their problems, this is what I mean. This isn't a Grz post, but for the record, he is somehow +5 in this stretch - 12 goals better than McAvoy in 26 games. I have no idea how. It defies logic. And it probably means nothing unless they figure out how to get half of their top six forwards going and how they get their $20M top three D to stop playing like Grz lite.
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Post by MrHulot on Mar 31, 2024 20:12:45 GMT
Isn't it kind of ironic that the Bruins clinched a playoff berth because the Shabs beat the Flyers? Negative it was the dead things losing to Carolina Not according to nhl.com:
www.nhl.com/news/boston-bruins-clinch-berth-in-2024-stanley-cup-playoffs...however, it indeed makes more sense that Detroit lost, so the ninth place team can't catch up with the B's anymore.
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Post by thanx4memORRies on Mar 31, 2024 20:28:39 GMT
As of right now it's lining up for a Oil & Vegas 1st round series, spicy. Go Butch or whatever team gets Tarana West…. Hope to never witness a Laffs-Oilers final…. Wouldn’t know who to hate the most….
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Post by brewwins on Apr 2, 2024 4:05:21 GMT
Weird night. Florida, Rags, Colorado, Tampa, Oilers all lose to inferior teams. The squid needed the win and got it. Tied with the Crapitals for one of the wild card spots. Bkues still have a shot to catch the Kings. Should be fun.
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Post by brewwins on Apr 2, 2024 5:55:49 GMT
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Post by MrHulot on Apr 2, 2024 6:59:34 GMT
I like Torts. Wouldn't have minded him as a B's coach. But he already said the Flyers gig is his final one. Too bad.
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Post by 50belowzero on Apr 2, 2024 13:31:58 GMT
As of right now it's lining up for a Oil & Vegas 1st round series, spicy. Go Butch or whatever team gets Tarana West…. Hope to never witness a Laffs-Oilers final…. Wouldn’t know who to hate the most…. I think TO could beat Florida in the 1st round, especially if bad Bob shows up, Florida is 3-6-1 in their last 10 so not exactly heating up.
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Post by bookboy007 on Apr 2, 2024 14:13:07 GMT
Go Butch or whatever team gets Tarana West…. Hope to never witness a Laffs-Oilers final…. Wouldn’t know who to hate the most…. I think TO could beat Florida in the 1st round, especially if bad Bob shows up, Florida is 3-6-1 in their last 10 so not exactly heating up. Bolts are the hottest team in the Atlantic, Laffs second by a point over their last 10 with the Bruins 3rd. Oh, and Ottawa has won 5 in a row. LOL.
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Post by dannycater on Apr 2, 2024 14:29:15 GMT
Torts would have killed the B's...literally. He is a great interview, but selling out his top players, star players, selling out young players and roasting them anytime he can to the media...it's just not going to cut it today's NHL. Sure, he's gotten the best out of the Flyers, but I feel like he is EXACTLY what the B's don't want. He would have destroyed DeBrusk, Beecher, Heinen, etc...these guys wouldn't have performed under him in my opinion. You got to have some bedside manner and Cassidy had a nicer way of ripping people, but Monty to me has that right touch as coach. He understands that you rip the TEAM overall, not the individuals.
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Post by 50belowzero on Apr 2, 2024 14:45:22 GMT
Torts style works sometimes, usually with teams with no expectations, BJ's Flyers, but fails miserably with others like the Nucks. He can be a great interview at times though.
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Post by thanx4memORRies on Apr 2, 2024 14:48:32 GMT
Torts would have killed the B's...literally. He is a great interview, but selling out his top players, star players, selling out young players and roasting them anytime he can to the media...it's just not going to cut it today's NHL. Sure, he's gotten the best out of the Flyers, but I feel like he is EXACTLY what the B's don't want. He would have destroyed DeBrusk, Beecher, Heinen, etc...these guys wouldn't have performed under him in my opinion. You got to have some bedside manner and Cassidy had a nicer way of ripping people, but Monty to me has that right touch as coach. He understands that you rip the TEAM overall, not the individuals. And where would the B’S be without the player Jakey’s become….
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Post by 50belowzero on Apr 3, 2024 13:50:57 GMT
Caps lose, Isles win, Pingu win, things tightening up. The Caps have lost 3 in a row allowing teams to hang close, keereist the Penguins have a chance only 3 pts back and they have games with the Caps, Things & Isles, crazy. The next couple weeks of games are going to be crazy. In the West it's looking more and more like an Oil Vegas 1st round series, wow, a Cup contender will be going home early.
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Post by thanx4memORRies on Apr 3, 2024 14:11:30 GMT
Caps lose, Isles win, Pingu win, things tightening up. The Caps have lost 3 in a row allowing teams to hang close, keereist the Penguins have a chance only 3 pts back and they have games with the Caps, Things & Isles, crazy. The next couple weeks of games are going to be crazy. In the West it's looking more and more like an Oil Vegas 1st round series, wow, a Cup contender will be going home early. Let’s hope the B’S aren’t one of those contenders….
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Post by MrHulot on Apr 3, 2024 14:16:13 GMT
Torts style works sometimes, usually with teams with no expectations, BJ's Flyers, but fails miserably with others like the Nucks. He can be a great interview at times though. Torts won a cup with Tampa Bay in 2004. Just sayin'...
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Post by 50belowzero on Apr 3, 2024 14:16:15 GMT
Caps lose, Isles win, Pingu win, things tightening up. The Caps have lost 3 in a row allowing teams to hang close, keereist the Penguins have a chance only 3 pts back and they have games with the Caps, Things & Isles, crazy. The next couple weeks of games are going to be crazy. In the West it's looking more and more like an Oil Vegas 1st round series, wow, a Cup contender will be going home early. Let’s hope the B’S aren’t one of those contenders…. I don't think the B's losing in the 1st round would surprise a lot of hockey fans, media and the like. I don't think they're viewed in the same light as the Avs, Stars, Vegas, Oil, Rags, Canes, Panthers etc. I always view the 1st round as the toughest, every team starts with a clean slate and the anything can happen attitude. I think if the B's can get out of the 1st round they can get on a roll.
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Post by MrHulot on Apr 3, 2024 14:18:42 GMT
Let’s hope the B’S aren’t one of those contenders…. I don't think the B's losing in the 1st round would surprise a lot of hockey fans, media and the like. I don't think they're viewed in the same light as the Avs, Stars, Vegas, Oil, Rags, Canes, Panthers etc. I always view the 1st round as the toughest, every team starts with a clean slate and the anything can happen attitude. I think if the B's can get out of the 1st round they can get on a roll. Right now they'd play the Tampons in the 1st round. Definitely not my favorite match-up.
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Post by MrHulot on Apr 3, 2024 14:20:06 GMT
Torts would have killed the B's...literally. He is a great interview, but selling out his top players, star players, selling out young players and roasting them anytime he can to the media...it's just not going to cut it today's NHL. Sure, he's gotten the best out of the Flyers, but I feel like he is EXACTLY what the B's don't want. He would have destroyed DeBrusk, Beecher, Heinen, etc...these guys wouldn't have performed under him in my opinion. You got to have some bedside manner and Cassidy had a nicer way of ripping people, but Monty to me has that right touch as coach. He understands that you rip the TEAM overall, not the individuals. Montgomery is too soft IMHO.
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Post by 50belowzero on Apr 3, 2024 14:20:14 GMT
I don't think the B's losing in the 1st round would surprise a lot of hockey fans, media and the like. I don't think they're viewed in the same light as the Avs, Stars, Vegas, Oil, Rags, Canes, Panthers etc. I always view the 1st round as the toughest, every team starts with a clean slate and the anything can happen attitude. I think if the B's can get out of the 1st round they can get on a roll. Right now they'd play the Tampons in the 1st round. Definitely not my favorite match-up.Personally i think they can beat the Bolts, any team will be a tough 1st round matchup imo, even TO.
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Post by 50belowzero on Apr 3, 2024 14:22:28 GMT
Torts would have killed the B's...literally. He is a great interview, but selling out his top players, star players, selling out young players and roasting them anytime he can to the media...it's just not going to cut it today's NHL. Sure, he's gotten the best out of the Flyers, but I feel like he is EXACTLY what the B's don't want. He would have destroyed DeBrusk, Beecher, Heinen, etc...these guys wouldn't have performed under him in my opinion. You got to have some bedside manner and Cassidy had a nicer way of ripping people, but Monty to me has that right touch as coach. He understands that you rip the TEAM overall, not the individuals. Montgomery is too soft IMHO.Not if you watch "Behind the B" he isn't, on them all the time.
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Post by thanx4memORRies on Apr 3, 2024 14:22:36 GMT
Let’s hope the B’S aren’t one of those contenders…. I don't think the B's losing in the 1st round would surprise a lot of hockey fans, media and the like. I don't think they're viewed in the same light as the Avs, Stars, Vegas, Oil, Rags, Canes, Panthers etc. I always view the 1st round as the toughest, every team starts with a clean slate and the anything can happen attitude. I think if the B's can get out of the 1st round they can get on a roll. Boy that water was ice cold!
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Post by dannycater on Apr 3, 2024 14:31:17 GMT
Torts would have killed the B's...literally. He is a great interview, but selling out his top players, star players, selling out young players and roasting them anytime he can to the media...it's just not going to cut it today's NHL. Sure, he's gotten the best out of the Flyers, but I feel like he is EXACTLY what the B's don't want. He would have destroyed DeBrusk, Beecher, Heinen, etc...these guys wouldn't have performed under him in my opinion. You got to have some bedside manner and Cassidy had a nicer way of ripping people, but Monty to me has that right touch as coach. He understands that you rip the TEAM overall, not the individuals. Montgomery is too soft IMHO.You can look at it that way, especially after last year playoff collapse. Feel like he gets the most out of a team that is lacking in offensive firepower this season other than 88.
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Post by islamorada on Apr 3, 2024 14:34:38 GMT
Montgomery is too soft IMHO. Not if you watch "Behind the B" he isn't, on them all the time. The players on the ice he favors are soft.
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Post by sandogbrewin on Apr 3, 2024 15:25:28 GMT
Right now they'd play the Tampons in the 1st round. Definitely not my favorite match-up. Personally i think they can beat the Bolts, any team will be a tough 1st round matchup imo, even TO. Only team I would fear in the 1st round arre the Rags. The Bruins are not getting an easy matchup. Don't think fans should concern themselves. It's going to be a tough 1st round no matter what.
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Post by thanx4memORRies on Apr 3, 2024 17:14:19 GMT
Personally i think they can beat the Bolts, any team will be a tough 1st round matchup imo, even TO. Only team I would fear in the 1st round arre the Rags. The Bruins are not getting an easy matchup. Don't think fans should concern themselves. It's going to be a tough 1st round no matter what. In other words, fear everyone….
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